‘While there is support for the ruling BJP, there is also a plurality of opinion among Indians which the new government must take into consideration’
| Photo Credit: AFP
The final turnout in the 2024 general election (66.2%) is a clear indication of the continued interest in, engagement with and participation of the Indian voter in India’s democratic processes. This has put to rest the initial and rather hurried speculation about the disenchantment of the Indian voter with Indian elections, going by the initial figures of a lower turnout. The turnout in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections was only 1% lower when compared to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, but this was still the third highest turnout ever in an Indian national election.
An engagement with the electoral process
Voter turnout is the most robust indicator of voter’s electoral participation, and the turnout figures for 2024 only indicate a high level of participation among Indian voters, more so among women voters. There were issues with regard to the schedule and the long duration of the election period. But, finally, voters braved the heat, set aside other important engagements and participated in the general election with great enthusiasm.
The enthusiasm shown by Indians for the 2024 election continued even after voting was over. There was keen interest in the exit poll predictions. That there was much debate among Indians on these on the evening of June 1, 2024, is a clear indication of this. The actual results — which were contrary to the exit poll estimates — resulted in continued discussion about the verdict and its fallout. This goes to indicate the intense and continued engagement of Indians with the electoral process. There is not even the smallest hint of any disenchantment with elections and the electoral process, despite anxieties about the reliability of the electronic voting machines (EVM), increasing defections from one party to another, the declining role of ideology in elections and the quality of representatives getting elected to Parliament, election after election. A Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) survey indicates 17% of Indians showing no trust in EVMs, while another 43% indicated some trust in it. Nearly 30% of Indians also mentioned decreased trust in EVMs.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerged as the single largest party but as it fell short of a majority, it formed the government along with its allies. Clearly, larger numbers of people are in support of the ruling BJP, but there is a plurality of opinion among Indians which the new government must take into considerations. Prime Minister Narendra Modi still remains far more popular when compared to any other leader, his popularity rating being 41% when compared to the Congress’s Rahul Gandhi at 27%.
Some of the concerns, key issues
But in the Lokniti-CSDS survey, 28% of Indians mentioned that Mr. Modi’s image has dented to a great extent. Another 33% mentioned that his image has dented to some extent due to the BJP’s induction of leaders from various political parties which has tainted this image.
Lokniti CSDS | Pre-poll survey | Post-poll survey
Findings of the Lokniti-CSDS survey clearly also indicate an anxiety about the nature of vindictive politics which has risen in the last few years. In the survey, 44% of people mentioned that Opposition leaders have been arrested due to political reasons but only 23% negated this view. In the survey, 67% of Indians also expressed the view that citizens should have the right to ask questions to their elected leaders; 20% did not hold this opinion. It is important to note that 58% of Indians believed that change of government is important for development of the country, while 32% said continuity of the same party in government was better for development. The importance of courts/the judiciary needs to be taken into account, as in the Lokniti-CSDS survey, 58% of Indians mentioned that courts are important in checking the powers of the government. Only 27% believed this may not be necessary. There was a strongly shared view (66%) that people should have the power to oppose the decisions of the government if necessary, while only 19% were against this view.
The verdict of 2024 has also indicated that issues of national pride, national identity, and national security are important. But at the same time, and equally important, are the day-to-day issues of the people such as unemployment and price rise which no political party can afford to ignore for long. The findings of the Lokniti-CSDS survey indicate that unemployment and price rise were the twin issues of disenchantment with the Modi government; a large number of them also did not want this government to be re-elected. The BJP emerged as the single largest party but suffered a major setback in Uttar Pradesh, the State where the Ram Mandir was built and inaugurated with much pomp and show. This development is an indication of the mistake the BJP made in depending too much dependence on the issue of Hindutva at the cost of the bread and butter issues. The defeat of the BJP’s candidate in the Faizabad constituency (Ayodhya) goes to strengthen this point further. The verdict of 2024 has indicated that there is a limit to identity politics, whether it is about caste or religion.
More or less an ideal democracy
In a functioning democracy, it is important to have a strong Opposition along with a stable and strong government. The verdict of 2024 resembles the true character of an ideal democracy. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has a majority in the Lok Sabha with 293 seats, with the BJP being the single largest party with 240 seats. The INDIA bloc/alliance has a strength of 234 MPs in the Lok Sabha with the Congress being the largest Opposition party with 99 seats.
The numbers in the 18th Lok Sabha are a reflection of people’s views on various issues related to governance. In theory there could not be a better government than this in a functioning democracy, though we know there lies a difference between theory and practice, glimpses of which were seen in the tussle between the ruling coalition and the Opposition on the issue of election of the Speaker and Deputy Speaker of the Lok Sabha. There are many other issues which are likely to be a bone of contention between the ruling party and the Opposition. This writer only wishes that the views expressed by the people of India are taken seriously and both the ruling party and the Opposition work in tandem for the next five years, trying and resolving issues rather than complicating them.
Sanjay Kumar is a Professor at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) and a political commentator. The views expressed are personal
