The Gen Z protests that erupted in Kathmandu on September 8, 2025, snowballed rapidly, taking the Nepal government by surprise. The excessive police reaction led to an explosion of public anger, and the rapidly evolving situation forced Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli to quit the following day, creating a vacuum that even the Gen Z protesters were unprepared for.
Following talks between the Gen Z representatives and Chief of Army Staff General A.R. Sigdel, former Chief Justice Sushila Karki was sworn in as interim Prime Minister on September 12, with the mandate to conduct fresh elections within six months. The parliament was dissolved, an apolitical cabinet of experts is taking shape, and calm has returned to the streets.
Elections have been fixed for March 5, 2026 but questions persist. How will Gen Z organise itself around a political platform? Will the established political parties be ready? Meanwhile, suggestions are afoot for amending the constitution but this may open a Pandora’s box in the absence of process legitimacy.
A turbulent phase in India’s neighbourhood
The decade of the 2020s has witnessed political changes in India’s neighbourhood — in February 2021, the experiment with democracy in Myanmar collapsed as the military assumed full control; later in 2021, the Taliban returned to Kabul as the U.S. withdrew from Afghanistan; in mid-2022, the Aragalaya movement in Sri Lanka forced President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee the country; in Pakistan in May 2023, the arrest of former Prime Minister Imran Khan led to widespread protests but the military took charge of the situation; and, in August 2024, protests in Bangladesh gathered momentum forcing Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to quit and leave Dhaka. It is hardly surprising that analysts would look for patterns that can fit their models or conspiracy theories.
Editorial | Troubled transition: On the Nepal protests and after
However, each of these changes has its own history. Sheikh Hasina had been in power since 2009 and the elections in January 2024 had been disputed even as she cracked down on the opposition. In Sri Lanka, the Rajapaksa family had been ruling since 2004 with a short interregnum.
Myanmar and Pakistan have had long spells of military rule; the military has remained in the driver’s seat — openly as in Myanmar or behind the scenes, as in Pakistan. Afghanistan followed the familiar pattern of failed interventions by the United States — since Vietnam in the 1960s, and in 2021, when it had become apparent that continued U.S. presence in Afghanistan would not help matters.
If there are similarities, these are primarily the dominant role played by the youth in the protests and the higher levels of youth unemployment compared to the total unemployment in these societies. While overall unemployment levels in Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka are between 4%-5%, youth unemployment is above 16% and in Nepal, above 20%.
Politically, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh have had political stability given the long tenures of the Rajapaksa brothers and Sheikh Hasina, respectively, but this led to nepotism, corruption and increasing disdain for democratic accountability.
Nepal’s political transition
In contrast, Nepal’s political trajectory has been different with frequent government changes. Since 2015, when the constitution was adopted, there were seven governments but with the same leaders playing musical chairs, UML leader Oli thrice and both Maoist leader Prachanda and NC leader Sher Bahadur Deuba, each twice. It created a curious internal stability where cronyism, nepotism and corruption flourished, within the outward instability that prevented job growth and economic development.
Nepal’s political transition began 35 years ago. The 1990 Jan Aandolan replaced Panchayati Raj with multi-party democracy and circumscribed the monarchy to a constitutional role. However, intra-party rivalries provided a fertile ground for the monarchy to play favourites. A Maoist insurgency surfaced in 1996 and over a decade, gradually engulfed large parts of the country claiming 17,000 lives.
It took 17 years before the political parties came together to work out a peace process that permitted the Maoists to come overground and emerge as a political party. During this period, there were 15 changes of government and one spell of direct rule by King Gyanendra that sparked the second Jan Aandolan in 2006, forcing him to restore parliament and the elected government.
In 2008, an elected Constituent Assembly declared Nepal to be a republic ending the 240-year-old monarchy and began drafting a constitution for a federal republic. Instead of the given two-year deadline, the constitution was promulgated after seven years in 2015. More time was spent on government formations and these seven years witnessed six Prime Ministers. Maoist leaders served twice, UML leaders twice, the NC once and an interim government was created under Chief Justice Khil Raj Regmi for electing a second Constituent Assembly in 2013.
The Jan Aandolans, in 1990 and 2006, were spearheaded by political parties to wrest political power from the monarchy. But the 2025 protests reflect a broader frustration with political leaders of all political parties, for misusing coalition politics to amass personal wealth.
President Ramchandra Paudel has reiterated that he will observe the constitution and has sought to justify concerns about the appointment of an Interim Prime Minister by citing Article 61. Article 61 merely directs the President to “promote the national unity” and “to abide by and protect the Constitution”. Since a state of national emergency was not declared, Gen. Sigdel played a political role in identifying and holding consultations with the Gen Z representatives. The army also moved targeted leaders and Ministers into military cantonments for their security. Clearly, Mr. Paudel depended on the army because it is the only institution that enjoys social respect.
Ms. Karki has identified three priorities for the Interim Government — to ensure elections on March 5; to fix accountability for the use of excessive force by the police and the arson and vandalism; and to expose and prosecute corruption in high political office. The second and third will be difficult as there are reports of politically affiliated gangs infiltrating the Gen Z protests, and fast track prosecutions in Nepal’s justice system are unheard of.
There is a growing sentiment that the 2015 constitution that introduced a 275 member House of Representatives with First Past The Post (165 seats) and Proportional Representation (110 seats) somehow prevents the emergence of a majority government. Other ideas doing the rounds are to introduce a directly elected executive and do away with federalism by empowering local bodies. Pushing such ideas through a constitutional commission and national referendums could create more difficulties. Any dilution of federalism or Proportional Representation system is bound to spark protests among the Madhesis, Janjati and Tharu communities.
Such moves into uncharted political territory and questionable legitimacy run contrary to Mr. Paudel’s assurance of abiding by the constitution and may jeopardise the election schedule. Established political parties need time for an internal leadership churn that the old timers will resist. New political forces led by youth leaders will emerge and it is likely that some pro-monarchy elements may also sense an opportunity to recover lost ground.
Focus should be on fair elections
Fortunately, India has escaped criticism in Nepal’s media in connection with the political turmoil. The restrained official statements and the phone call by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on September 18, to congratulate Ms. Karki, convey condolences over the loss of life, and assure full support to Nepal, keeps communication channels open.
Peaceful, free and fair elections on March 5 would be the best way forward for Nepal. Any other ambitious moves by vested interests would only increase uncertainties, generating mistrust and insecurity in which the political gains of the last two decades towards a more democratic and inclusive Nepal would be at risk.
Rakesh Sood is a former diplomat who served as Ambassador to Nepal and is currently Distinguished Fellow at the Council for Strategic and Defense Research (CSDR)
Published – September 27, 2025 12:16 am IST
