On June 22, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. had conducted military strikes against three Iranian nuclear installations. This is a momentous event, the outcome of which could change the shape of West Asia for decades to come.
Previous western interventions in Iraq (1992 and 2002), and in Libya (2011), saw quick military outcomes, but long term destabilisation of the countries.
Mr. Trump warned of ‘far greater’ attacks in the future if Iran does not ‘make peace’. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi has said that “Iran reserves all options to defend its sovereignty, interests and people”. Will this then be a long drawn-out war? How will it impact the situation in the sub-continent, as the U.S. strike was preceded by Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff General Munir’s meeting with President Trump. The general, who got himself promoted to Field Marshal only recently, arrived in Washington soon after Israel began its attack on June 13.
U.S. interests’
General Asim Munir’s private lunch with Mr. Trump at the White House on June 18 was an unprecedented departure from protocol. Normally, heads of states or governments have to vie for this honour. While the meeting was projected by both sides in the sub-continent’s context, this makes little sense as India-Pakistan hostilities came to an end a month ago. There was no urgency to demand the U.S. President’s attention.
Earlier in June, Pakistan was praised in a Senate hearing by General Michael Kurilla, the head of the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM). He praised Pakistan’s ‘value as a partner’ in countering terrorism and mentioned its role in the arrest and extradition of Mohd. Sharifullah, accused of killing 13 U.S. soldiers, who were deployed during the U.S. evacuation from Afghanistan, at Kabul airport on August 26, 2021.
This was a curious statement considering that Pakistan undermined the two decade-long U.S. effort to stabilise Afghanistan despite receiving $20 billion as U.S. assistance during the period. Imran Khan, the then Pakistan prime minister gloated over the U.S.’s humiliating withdrawal and said that ‘shackles of slavery’ had been broken. It is unlikely that the CENTCOM chief had forgotten such recent history, and therefore one needs to understand what exactly led to the sudden change in the U.S.’s position.
For the U.S., West Asia is far more important than South Asia. Though America is no longer dependent on oil imports from the Gulf, it has large economic stakes there. During his recent visit to the region, Mr. Trump extracted more than $3 trillion worth of commitments in investment in the U.S. from Gulf monarchies. The security of Israel is also deeply enmeshed in American politics. The focus of the CENTCOM chief’s testimony was not South Asia, but the situation in the West Asian region and how to deter Iran with Pakistan support.
Pakistan-Iran relations
Pakistan has a complex relationship with Iran. The two countries compete for influence in Afghanistan. Pakistan takes pride in being the only Muslim majority state possessing nuclear weapons, and it does not like the idea of losing that status. There have also been attacks on Iranian security personnel by groups based in Pakistan. This had triggered missile exchanges between the two countries in 2024.
Pakistan can play a role in isolating Iran in case of a conflict with Israel. Iran depends on imports for most of its food requirements, and therefore trade routes via land are important in case conflict in the region leads to a closing of ports along the Persian Gulf. There are five trading posts on the Iran-Pakistan border through which there is smuggling of petrol and diesel from Iran to the Pakistani side of the border. Iran also supplies electricity for the Gwadar port situated in Pakistan’s Balochistan province.
On June 15, Pakistan announced — around the time General Munir arrived in Washington — the closure of its land borders with Iran, except for the return of Pakistani nationals. In 1965, Iran under the Shah regime had provided sanctuary to the Pakistan Air Force. And now, Pakistan has slammed the door shut in Iran’s face.
The understanding between Pakistan and the Trump administration was probably in the works for some time. It may be recalled that Pakistan received a fresh commitment of $1.4 billion under the climate resilience program of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the midst of recent hostilities with India. This was in addition to the release of $1 billion under the existing commitment of $7 billion from the IMF as the nation faces a desperate economic situation. President Trump’s intervention also helped Pakistan when Indian armed forces neutralised Pakistan’s air defences, and struck a critical facility near Nur Khan Air Base in Rawalpindi.
Increased defence outlay
In Pakistan’s budget for FY2025-26 presented on June 10, defence was provided an increased outlay despite overall downsizing of the expenditure by 7%. The stated figure for defence expenditure was 2.55 trillion Pakistani rupees. This, however, does not include an allocation of 742 billion Pakistani rupees on account of military pensions. Therefore, the overall defence outlay is 3.29 trillion Pakistani rupees ($11.65 billion). This represents a sharp hike of more than 17% over the previous year’s budget. The development sector, already neglected, has seen a 50% reduction to 1 trillion Pakistani rupees in the recent budget.
Pakistan is a heavily indebted country. The interest payment of 8.207 trillion Pakistani rupees is the largest item of expenditure in the budget, accounting for 74.14% of the federal government’s revenue share of 11.07 trillion Pakistani rupees. The total expenditure on account of defence and debt service exceeds Islamabad’s share of revenue. Federal government departments, other than defence, have to be run on the basis of fresh loans. While Shahbaz Sharif’s government has projected an improved foreign exchange position with reserves amounting to $11.5 billion, this was made possible only by the rollover of $16 billion of loans by friendly countries.
Ideology
On April 16, General Munir in a speech told his Pakistani audience that they belong to a “superior ideology”. He also mentioned the two-nation theory, and said that Kashmir is the jugular vein of Pakistan. However, Mr. Munir was simply repeating what has become Pakistan’s official creed.
It was Muhammad Ali Jinnah who had originally propounded both these ideas. The ideology of Pakistan since then has been to impose a uniform religious identity ignoring national and linguistic diversities of its people. This lies at the heart of the conflict in Balochistan, which never wanted to join Pakistan. The Khan of Kalat had declared independence in 1947, supported by the Loya Jirga. While Jinnah initially recognised Balochistan’s independence, he later sent in troops to suppress the new founded state.
The thrust of General Munir’s April speech was on suppressing the Baloch national struggle. Balochistan is strategically important as it borders the Sistan-Balochistan province of Iran where the Chabahar port is located. Gwadar is essentially a military facility for the Chinese navy, and not a transport hub. It accounts for only 1% of Pakistan’s maritime trade.
Has Pakistan discovered new fault lines to exploit? The timing of the U.S.’s entry into the Iran-Israel war could not have been better from Pakistan’s point of view. It’s sinking economy needs continued assistance despite the 25 IMF bailout packages it has received so far.
With the increasing imprint of religion in Pakistan’s polity, the sectarian divide has coloured its relations with Iran. Internally, there has been a rise in attacks by Sunni extremist groups on Shia pilgrims going by the land route to Shia holy cities in Iran and Iraq. This is not a coincidence — these groups enjoy the Pakistan army’s support which has used them to counter Baloch nationalism. While a tacit understanding with the U.S. on Iran could hold the fort, it will have a domestic cost. It will not go down well with the jihadist constituency the Pakistan army has cultivated. For in the same speech in which he ranted against India, General Munir also pledged support to the struggle of the people of Gaza against Zionist Israel.
Pakistan has thus lived and is continuing to live with such contradictions.
D. P. Srivastava is former Ambassador to Iran and author of Pakistan: Ideologies, Strategies and Interests.
Published – June 24, 2025 08:30 am IST
