The perfect cocktail of layered discrimination

Delimitation, the biggest elephant in the room called the Indian Union, is about to take centre stage. Statesmen such as Indira Gandhi and Atal Bihari Vajpayee appreciated the explosive potential of delimitation and kicked the can down the road, as it were, to be handled by a future generation. Here we are as that future generation. Do we kick the can further down the road? Do we detonate it? Or do we defuse it? We, the people of India, are at a historical crossroad. Will India remain a federal union? Or will it become an ethno-linguistic majoritarian mega state with minority ethno-linguistic mutinies?

Federalism is part of the inviolable basic structure of the Constitution of India. The Indian Union is a federal union. States are the federating units. Most States find their basis in language and many States of the Indian Union are continuations of ethno-linguistic homelands that have existed for centuries or even millennia. This is precisely why the Supreme Court of India has termed States as political units and not arbitrary administrative units.

Indian unity was forged in the anti-imperialist struggle against British imperialism and that unity continues in independent India through a delicate balance of power distribution between federating units and ongoing dialogue between diverse peoples of the Indian subcontinent.

What is delimitation? Article 82 of the Indian Constitution requires that the number of Lok Sabha seats per State is recalibrated after each Census by the Delimitation Commission, in accordance with the population. Delimitation last happened based on the 1971 census, when in 1976, the Indira Gandhi government suspended the delimitation process for 25 years, until 2001. It was further suspended for another 25 years by the A.B. Vajpayee government, and would lapse by 2026, unless another amendment is introduced. The freezing of delimitation was done in order not to disincentive States that were effective in population control. However, the Narendra Modi government has given hints about undertaking fresh delimitation before the elections in 2029.

Delimitation as a threat

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is a demographic indicator that estimates the average number of children a woman gives birth to during her reproductive years. Even today, TFR of non-Hindi States such as Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal is in the 1.6-1.8 range, below the replacement level of 2.1. The TFR of Hindi heartland States such as Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, at about 3.5, is well above the replacement level. This has been true for many decades and thus by now, a recalibration via delimitation will mean a radical decrease in the proportion of non-Hindi State seats in the Lok Sabha. For example, if delimitation takes place, the proportion of seats in Parliament for the southern States would be reduced from 25% to 17% and the number of seats from Hindi heartland States where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has electoral dominance would increase from 40% to 60%.

States such as Karnataka, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu already receive only about 30% of the total funds that contribute as direct taxes, while Bihar and Uttar Pradesh receive between 250% and 350% of their overall contribution. The decision of 16th Finance Commission to include the 2011 Census instead of the 1971 Census to devolve funds to States will be even more discriminatory to developed States. It is cause for worry that continuation of the same pattern would profoundly exacerbate the already existing bias against the non-Hindi States.

Fostering discrimination

India was conceived as a permanent, multi-ethnic, multi-lingual federal union, and not as a mono ethno-linguistic majoritarianism territory. The difference with states such as China and Russia is that they are only federal in name, the population being made of a ethno-linguistic group with a majority of upwards of 80% and several other small minority nationalities. In India’s case, however, there never was a majority ethno-linguistic group. India is a federation of various ethno-linguistic stakeholders, none of whom is a majority in India. But the major ones among them form the basis of various linguistic States, where they are super majority. But with long-term differences of TFR among States, and thereby, ethno-linguistic groups, this long-settled pattern faces the threat of being unsettled. Since 1947, the population proportion of Bengali, Kannada, Malayalam, Marathi, Odia, Punjabi, Tamil and Telugu have all decreased while the population proportion of one language, Hindi, has massively increased, from 36% to nearly 43%; 43% is not too far away from the majority.

The ratio of Lok Sabha seats allocated to a State to the total number of Lok Sabha seats represents the Stakeholdership Index of a State in matters of the Union. Delimitation will reward the non-performers of population control policies that will effectively dominate and determine the policy of the Union. The performers will have a declining say and will be reduced to being mere revenue contributors The proportion of GDP and revenue from non-Hindi States is much greater than their population percentage while the proportion of GDP and revenue from Hindi States is lesser than their population percentage.

Post delimitation, States such as Bihar and Madhya Pradesh, where the BJP is dominant, will have their Stake holdership Index nearly double, whereas States such as Kerala and Tamil Nadu where the BJP has one to zero seats will see it being reduced by 30%-40%. Such a situation would skew Indian democracy in favour of the Hindi States, with other regions risking a loss of electoral dominance. Without electoral dominance and representation in the Union, this would further alienate the non-Hindi states.

Thus, the implementation of delimitation will create the perfect cocktail of layered discrimination. Non-Hindi States that have implemented population control measures successfully will lose a say in Union affairs. Non-Hindi States that contribute a majority of GDP, resources, revenue and taxes will lose say in how their monies are used. The ‘unsuccessful’ will create policies for the ‘successful’ with money from the ‘successful’. No taxation without representation was the cry in the Boston Tea Party. In a similar vein, delimitation will further shrink the representation of States that produce taxes. This is a very risky and dangerous path to pursue. There is no place for any system in India where some States increasingly look like owners of an imperial centre while others mimic colonies. Therefore, it is necessary to balance two competing constitutional values: formal equality in voting and federalism.

Possible solutions

There can be many solutions. First, just follow what Mrs Gandhi and A.B. Vajpayee did and extend the freeze by another 25 years and defer to a future generation.

Second, permanently freeze delimitation as far as the India-wide redistribution of seats across States is concerned.

Third, go through with delimitation as envisaged. But supplement it with a long-due new grand federal compact such that the Concurrent List is abolished in favour of an expanded State list, all residual powers vested to the States and large-scale transfer of subjects are made from the Union list to the State list, keeping external defence, external affairs and currency in Delhi’s hands. This would balance delimitation with decentralisation, softening the majoritarian blow inherent in delimitation.

Fourth, preserve the present seat proportion between States in the Lok Sabha but increase the number of seats in each State to partially offset the representational deficit of population explosion States.

India is a unique experiment. It is not an ethnic-linguistic majoritarian empire like Russia or China. It is not a mono-linguistic nation state such as Bangladesh and Thailand. India is like Africa or Europe, a tapestry of languages, ethnicities, cultures, civilisations and faiths, but with a crucial difference. It is bound in an inseparable political Union born in the crucible of anti-imperialist struggle with one, unified voice when speaking to others. India is the grandest experiment of plurality in modern human history. Majoritarianism and partisanship cannot be allowed to undo it and threaten its unity. History will not forgive us.

Salem Dharanidharan is a spokesperson of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) party and the Deputy Secretary of the party’s IT wing. Garga Chatterjee is General Secretary, Bangla Pokkho