​Second chance: On the U.S. and the Iran nuclear deal

It was Donald Trump who sabotaged the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), better known as the Iran nuclear deal. When Mr. Trump, in his first term as President (2017-21), unilaterally withdrew the U.S. from the agreement in May 2018, Iran was fully compliant with the terms. Mr. Trump then adopted his ‘maximum pressure’ policy aimed at forcing Iran to renegotiate the deal — a move which Tehran rebuffed. Last week, Mr. Trump said he had sent a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, asking him to reopen dialogue or risk military action. While the letter’s details are still private, it took only two days for the Iranian leader to reject the outreach. Mr. Khamenei said “some bullying governments” insist on talks not to resolve the issue but to impose their deals. Iran’s reaction is not entirely surprising. In 2013, Tehran had taken Barack Obama’s overtures quite seriously. Mr. Khamenei had fully backed the Hassan Rouhani presidency’s bid to negotiate with the West. And they had reached a result-oriented agreement which cut Iran’s path towards nuclear weapons in return for the lifting of international sanctions. Now, when the American leader who demolished the functional agreement reaches out to them, the Iranians are sceptical for obvious reasons. Yet, there is a compelling argument to retake the path of diplomacy.

In 2018, when Mr. Trump imposed maximum pressure, Iran responded with maximum resistance. This mutual brinkmanship escalated regional tensions — Saudi Arabian oil facilities came under attack, Iran shot down an American drone, the U.S. assassinated Gen. Qassem Soleimani and Tehran retaliated with a missile strike on an American base in Iraq. While Mr. Trump’s White House exit in 2021 ushered in the hope that the nuclear deal could be revived under the Biden administration, it did not happen. Over the four years, the region has seen dramatic developments. Today’s Iran is weaker than what it was in 2020. Israel’s war against Hamas and Hezbollah has weakened the ‘Axis of Resistance’. Last year saw Israel and Iran exchange attacks. The fall of Syria’s Assad regime, Tehran’s only state ally in West Asia, in December 2024, shrank Iran’s strategic depth in a hostile region. The country is also in deep economic pain, and the Israelis seem willing to take greater military risks, provided they have American backing. Amid challenges, Iran reportedly possesses enough high-grade fuel to produce weapons — Mr. Trump has acknowledged this with his ‘we are reaching a critical point’. The U.S. wants to resolve the nuclear problem and Iran wants lasting economic and diplomatic reprieves. Beneath the hostility, there is a strategic possibility to resume dialogue. There is no harm in the Iranians giving it a second chance.