The influx of Myanmar refugees has generated diverse responses in India’s Northeastern States. Photo: Special Arrangement
Northeast India has experienced prolonged spells of insurgency. However, over the past few decades, large parts of the region have remained free of insurgencies. This relative peace has allowed for the operationalisation of massive infrastructure projects. But, as the violence in Manipur attests, the gains made are experiencing increasing stress because of the political developments in Myanmar.
The military coup in Myanmar in February 2021 has encountered widespread disapproval from the people of that country. The civil disobedience movement against military rule subsequently evolved into armed resistance by the People’s Defence Forces (PDFs). The coordinated attacks by the PDFs and the Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs) pushed the Myanmar military (Tatmadaw) to cede control over large parts of the country. In a futile attempt to regain territory, the Tatmadaw resorted to indiscriminate use of force. There were instances when civilian areas were subjected to aerial and artillery bombardment by the Tatmadaw. The Sagaing Region, Chin and Kachin States — bordering Northeast India — often witnessed heavy fighting between resistance forces and the Tatmadaw.
Movement of refugees
In Northeast India, there are many ethnic groups, such as the Mizo-Chin-Kuki, that inhabit both sides of the India-Myanmar border and share strong community and familial ties. Recognising these ethnic interactions, the governments of both countries instituted a Free Movement Regime (FMR) after Independence, for people living within 40 kilometre on either side of the India-Burma border, which was subsequently reduced to 16 km. The FMR allowed people in the designated areas to move across the border without being subjected to cumbersome paperwork such as visas. Additionally, a wide range of economic activities, such as Border haats were established to encourage local cross-border trade and promote livelihoods.
However, these attempts to convert border zones into launch pads of economic engagement received a setback after the recent violent conflict in Myanmar, which resulted in a large-scale refugee movement into India. The movement of refugees has negatively impacted India’s border management strategies.
According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees estimates, as of December 31, 2024, approximately 95,600 refugees from Myanmar had moved into India. Of these, about 73,400 refugees reportedly reached India after the recent military coup. However, given the porous border, it is difficult to accurately estimate the number of Myanmar refugees in India. The influx of Myanmar refugees has generated diverse responses in India’s Northeastern States. In Mizoram, various civil society organisations and the State government have shown considerable empathy for the refugees due to their shared ethnic identity.
On the other hand, in Manipur, there are concerns that the influx of refugees is disturbing the fragile ethnic balance and has become an important variable in the Meitei-Kuki conflict. Responding to such concerns, last year, the Union Home Minister announced that the FMR would be abolished to maintain internal security and “to maintain the demographic structure of India’s Northeastern States bordering Myanmar.” However, it is not certain if India’s Ministry of External Affairs has formally communicated to its Myanmar counterpart about the withdrawal from the Agreement on the Land Border Crossing. Meanwhile, in December 2024, a new framework was operationalised, which would allow people living within 10 km of the border, including in Manipur, to cross the India-Myanmar border with a permit at designated entry/exit points.
Rather than expanding the FMR to facilitate greater economic engagement between India’s Northeast and Myanmar, it is being increasingly constricted. Moreh in Manipur, once a bustling border trade town, has borne the brunt of recent violent developments. The decline in the border trade meant that Moreh’s emergence as India’s gateway to Southeast Asia may not materialise anytime soon. Plans to improve the India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway have also taken a back seat.
Along with India, China is also experiencing negative spillovers due to political instability in Myanmar. To prevent the unauthorised movement of people, China has fenced a few critical sections of its border with Myanmar. Beijing has strong relations with some EAOs in Myanmar and deployed them to tackle the criminal/drug syndicates operating from there. China deploys considerable economic resources and is a member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), which gives it greater space to engage with diverse actors in Myanmar with relative ease.
Unlike China, India is not a member of the UNSC and must operate within the liberal democratic framework. Yet, India must craft a more calibrated and comprehensive response to developments in Myanmar lest Manipur will continue to fester.
Urgent requirements
To ensure peace in the region, the consolidation of unhealthy relationships between Indian insurgent groups and armed groups across the border needs to be arrested. Therefore, it becomes imperative to engage various ethnic organisations in Myanmar. There is also an urgent need to provide increased humanitarian relief and, in the long run, develop health care and educational infrastructure in Myanmar near the border with Manipur and Mizoram in India. These measures would ensure that the population seeking basic needs does not have to make strenuous efforts to enter India. Further, India, in collaboration with select neighbours of Myanmar, must nudge all the stakeholders in that country to move towards a more federal democratic polity.
With political uncertainty in Bangladesh and the civil war in Myanmar, the prospect of Northeast India’s enhanced external economic engagement is dim at the moment. Therefore, the Indian government will have to spend more resources to maintain economic growth in the region. Despite the current security situation along the borders, including in Manipur, the long-term objective of border management practices in Northeast India should be to increase economic interactions with Southeast Asian countries. The policy framework should be geared to achieve such an objective at the first available opportunity.
Sanjay Pulipaka is the Chairperson of the Politeia Research Foundation. The views expressed are personal
Published – February 20, 2025 01:23 am IST
