​Monsoon anticipation: On the monsoon in 2025

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has given a reassuring signal that from June to September, India is likely to receive ‘above normal’ monsoon rainfall, or 5% more than the historical average of 87 cm. Were this to pan out as projected, it would be a second consecutive year of ‘above normal’ rains. Last year, India received 8% more monsoon rain than what is typical from June to September. This is good news for kharif sowing, which will help improve stocks of grain and shore up reserves for exports. This year the government has also committed to procure, at the minimum support prices, pulses in an attempt to reduce the import bill. As pulses are a more land-intensive crop than cereal, good rains are essential for an adequate harvest. The IMD follows a two-stage system of monsoon forecasts: the first in April, followed by an update in mid-May, which has additional information on rainfall distribution. These are regularly updated monthly, alongside a host of short-term forecasts. Thus, what is forecast in April may not exactly unfurl itself given the limitations of meteorological science and the computational tools required. However, this year, there is certainty about the absence of an El Niño. Associated with a warming of the Equatorial Pacific and with six out of 10 years linked to weak monsoon rain, a monsoon without an El Niño augurs well for India. Another encouraging factor is a parameter called the ‘Eurasian snow cover,’ or snow cover areas of northern hemisphere and Eurasia (January-March, 2025). These were ‘below normal,’ and, according to IMD meteorologists, have an ‘inverse relationship’ with that year’s summer monsoon rainfall. An inverse relationship means that less snow corresponds to more rain.

For its monsoon forecasts, the IMD uses weather models that simulate the ocean and the atmosphere. This year, except for the El Niño, none of the ‘oceanic parameters’ indicates either way — how the monsoon will pan out. This is not unusual but means that factors closer to the sub-continent – cyclonic activity in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea for instance — will have greater importance to the monsoon. Past years with above normal rainfall have brought flooding and landslides, accentuated by the challenges of global warming. Kerala’s Wayanad disaster in July last year, that killed at least 200 people and displaced several times that number, is just one instance. Therefore, positive news on the monsoon front should not distract the focus of the Centre and States from putting in place adequate infrastructure to minimise damage and the loss of lives.