Is the American Dream dead for Indians?

The hike in the H-1B visa fees has led to some panic in India. Would you say the American Dream is now dead?

Arjun Appadurai: Dreams do not die in the same way as realities change. I would say the American Dream remains alive for a very large number of people from all classes from both within the U.S. and outside. The U.S. still remains the place where, in some way, the dream or the myth that anything is possible [remains]. I do not think that is dead. In the present circumstances, the doorway may have narrowed, but the dream seems to be highly operative for the large majority of people.

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Ajay Srivastava : About 3.4 lakh Indian students are in the U.S., enrolled in either STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) or management courses. They pay upward of $2,00,000, having taken loans from banks or relatives, for one and half to two years of education. If they do not get jobs, the dream comes down in scope gradually over the years. The hike in visa fee makes it almost impossible for anyone to be hired, except top STEM graduates. No U.S. company is going to take a risk given the vitiated political environment. The curtailing of the dream would mean that both come out as losers. The U.S. earns $15 billion as tuition fee from Indian students and more than $10 billion in living expenses.

Some say that the H1-B regime is being exploited to gain residency. How would you respond to that?

Ajay Srivastava: I do not agree with the narrative. There may have been some cases of misuse. But overall, the system has been great for both [the U.S. and the immigrants]. It is an emotional issue for the U.S. Many MAGA (Make America Great Again) supporters are either jobless or have low-paying jobs. It is natural for them to blame outsiders for this. The White House, too, is fuelling this narrative, exploiting the discontent among American workers. Again, there may be some cases of misuse. But largely, most of the people who have gone there are top STEM talent or are pursuing top-class research. They have either built companies or have expanded them, creating thousands of jobs. This includes Indians and non-Indians — Sergey Bin who is Russian and built Google, Elon Musk who is of South African and Canadian descent and built Tesla, Satya Nadella from India who heads Microsoft, and Sundar Pichai from India who heads Google… the list is endless.

Arjun Appadurai: The U.S. is unique. It is a society built on immigration. So, to suddenly say that we must control everything is not realistic, not just in today’s world but at any given time. More importantly, it is a global pattern that when things are not right internally or when somebody wants to make a claim to power, the easiest way for them appears to be to blame new arrivals.

The tougher question to ask is this: why has a society that is producing extraordinary amounts of wealth been unable to provide a simple social canopy, social security, health, or jobs? That is the big scandal that nobody wants to talk about excluding a minority in the U.S. That is what is wrong with the [anti-immigration] assertion.

Data | New $100k H1B visa fee could threaten Indian students’ American dream

You see, whatever H1-B visa-holders do, whether from India or other parts of the world, by and large is nothing illegal or criminal. So, even if they come to the U.S. and stay for six years and then obtain a green card, it is through law and established procedures. Additionally, what must be noted is that the beneficiaries are in a legitimate way pursuing and strengthening research in American universities, making these institutions a global force. Thereafter, some enter the global economy. It is a win-win situation. What is the point of this sudden restriction in a land built on the idea of immigration?

The U.S. has invested heavily in AI recently. Indian workers are preferred for their skills, knowledge, and sustainable wages. In that light, would the U.S. be able to sustain itself?

Ajay Srivastava: The U.S. has plans to spend $600 billion- $1 trillion in AI in the next five years. OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, Amazon and others will be contributing billions of dollars. There are about 3,00,000 Indian H-1B visa holders, constituting about 70% of the overall share, and these people, most of whom work at major technology firms, are also working in fields connected to AI. So, of course, their renewal process will be difficult, except at the higher levels. The middle and entry-level hirings will not be remunerative. And that is where they would need to be replaced by American workers. There would be some glitches [in the U.S.] but these will not be noticed because of the capital drive. If someone is deemed important, companies will pay the visa fees to retain them. However, in most cases, these roles will need to be filled by American workers. Again, while some glitches will occur, they will largely go unnoticed because much of the work being done is redundant — many people are developing similar AI applications.

Arjun Appadurai: AI is an extremely new space. It is my belief that the large amount of the investment in the realm would go to the higher end. Several studies have also indicated that winning the AI race would depend on a small number of extremely high paid people. Some studies have also pointed out that there are 100 people in the world who can make a breakthrough in AI, and the tech giants would be chasing them. If there were hundreds of H-1B visa-holders who could come and revolutionise AI for you, then it will be a cheaper market.

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The more poignant question is not just about AI but about larger digital technology. How can the U.S. substitute for quantity, reliability, and quality? There will be a lag because once you start squeezing supply from places such as India, your educational system must start pumping up people from below. That is not impossible for the U.S.. They will have to change policy, but that won’t happen overnight.

Is the H-1B visa issue an isolated matter, or does it form part of a broader geopolitical strategy involving pressure tactics?

Ajay Srivastava: My understanding is that President Trump is a bully, and he had to look big in the eyes of his MAGA voters. With China, he could not and therefore he had to invent a fall guy. India unwittingly became that fall guy. This has happened despite U.S. Presidents cultivating India as an alternative to China. How did this happen? Mr. Trump first said he was the one who stopped the India-Pakistan war; India denied that claim. I think he thought India came between him and the Nobel Peace Prize and had to punish India for it. The immediate reason for punishing India, he said, was that the country buys Russian oil. But China is the largest buyer, not India. Europe also buys oil from Russia. So, the U.S. isn’t concerned with facts. Also, before the H1-B directive, the Trump administration lost a case in the U.S. Appeals Court, which said that the legal basis of using tariffs to punish countries is not sound. Now, to defend its actions, the administration has named India.

H-1B visa | The Hindu’s coverage on U.S. work immigration visa fee hike and its impact

Arjun Appadurai: The H1-B is not that important — either in India or the U.S. So who made it important? It is obviously a mixture of politics, politicians, some over-reaction, and the reactions of certain sectors that are worried.

So, what should we expect from here?

Arjun Appadurai: First, assess your plan for investment and the return on investment because it is not like you can land in the U.S. and start earning money. You will have to invest for years in training and skilling. Second, go to the U.S., but keep your bags packed. Third, President Trump is not going to be there forever, so this program won’t last forever either.

Ajay Srivastava: There is a little-known clause in the directive which says the fee would be waived if the U.S. Commerce Secretary is satisfied that the prospect entrants are being allowed for a project of national importance. I would suggest Indian professionals make their name in their respective fields. They will then be noticed and be allowed to enter the U.S. without the visa fee.

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