In Tamil Nadu politics, too many players waiting in the wings

Though every election is important, the 2026 Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu are especially crucial, as they are likely to determine the future of many political parties in the State, including of the AIADMK, which is one of the two major Dravidian forces. Bipolarity in Tamil Nadu politics has traditionally kept the AIADMK and its rival, the DMK, alive and relevant, regardless of electoral outcomes. However, the losing party in 2026 may struggle to stay afloat, since many others are waiting in the wings.

The DMK, led by Chief Minister M.K. Stalin, has managed to hold its alliance together and maintain a relatively stable front since 2017. Its partners — the Left parties and the Congress — have little choice but to stick with the DMK because of ideological and strategic reasons. The presence of the BJP prevents them from switching sides or experimenting with other alliances. The Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), led by Thol. Thirumavalavan, remains in the DMK-led alliance not only because of its opposition to the BJP, but also because any alliance that includes the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) is unacceptable to it. Mr. Stalin has already started touring districts under the slogan ‘Tamil Nadu under one front,’ with the goal of enrolling 2 crore members.

On the other hand, the AIADMK-led alliance remains in disarray. It is grappling with multiple issues, particularly of power-sharing after the elections. The BJP, driven by the single-minded agenda of breaking new ground in Tamil Nadu, often acts as if it leads the alliance and tries to dictate terms to the AIADMK. This has caused a lot of bitterness among the AIADMK rank and file. The PMK, a potential ally, is entangled in a family feud between its founder, S. Ramadoss, and his son Anbumani Ramadoss; this has created uncertainty about its political direction. No amount of persuasion has stopped Dr. Ramadoss from talking about internal disputes in public and projecting his son as his arch rival. Even if reconciliation occurs, the damage may be irreparable, as the war of words has already eroded unity in the second tier of leadership.

As for the AIADMK, though former Chief Minister Edappadi K. Palaniswami is under pressure to forge a strong alliance to take on the DMK, he remains indecisive about reconciling with the faction led by another former Chief Minister, O. Panneerselvam. In his calculations, V.K. Sasikala, the close aide of the late J. Jayalalithaa, and T.T.V. Dhinakaran, who leads his own party, the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam, do not seem to count. Mr. Palaniswami overlooks the fact that these factions still retain some support among a particular community in Tamil Nadu, even if that support is difficult to quantify.

Both the AIADMK and the BJP are hoping that actor-turned-politician Vijay’s Tamizhaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) will join them, although there have been no overtures from Mr. Vijay’s side. Mr. Vijay aims to project himself as an alternative to the traditional political parties in Tamil Nadu. However, as of now, his party is no match to the DMK or the AIADMK in terms of organisational strength and financial clout. Mr. Vijay may garner a share of the vote, but is unlikely to emerge as a major challenge to either Dravidian party. While he is still young in politics, Mr. Vijay may fade into irrelevance if he fails to play his cards wisely.

Another player is Seeman, the leader of the Naam Tamizhar Katchi, who has refused to align with any party. Seeking to mobilise voters on the Tamil nationalist plank, his party crossed the 8% vote share in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls and now qualifies as a recognised State party under the Election Commission of India’s guidelines. Mr. Seeman seems determined to fight the Assembly elections on his own, but he may find it difficult to stay relevant unless he wins seats.

The overcrowded political landscape poses a serious challenge to both the DMK and AIADMK. Neither can afford to lose these elections. The DMK is attempting to capitalise on its record of fulfilling electoral promises and maintaining a cohesive alliance. The AIADMK, once a formidable force, has not yet mobilised effectively to take advantage of the anti-incumbency factor that even the best performing governments face. It is unclear whether anti-incumbency will benefit the AIADMK or Mr. Vijay. Even if Mr. Vijay succeeds, that may help the DMK, as it will prevent the AIADMK from gaining the edge that it desperately needs.