Has the INDIA bloc lost its vitality after the Lok Sabha polls?

Are pre-poll alliances inherently weak?

Hilal Ahmed: It depends on the nature of the alliance. Let’s compare the two major alliances in the country: the NDA (National Democratic Alliance) and the INDIA bloc. There is a distinct difference in the structure of the two. In the NDA, the BJP is the anchor; it brought together the other constituents. It had a concrete plan of action for the time before the election as well as after. On the other hand, the INDIA bloc came together to oppose the BJP. This alliance is based on the logic that no party will occupy the anchoring position. The stability of an alliance depends on the structure on which it has been built. It hardly matters whether it was stitched before or after the polls.

K.K. Kailash: We will be limiting ourselves if we look at a coalition only from the perspective of when it was formed. The stability of a coalition is decided by how the political parties relate to each other, how they come together, and how they conduct their business. Let’s take the example of the Congress-led UPA (United Progressive Alliance) government and the United Front governments led by Prime Ministers H.D. Deve Gowda and I.K. Gujral. They were fairly stable because they had mechanisms which constantly allowed political parties in the alliance to consult each other.

In the INDIA bloc, we have the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) on one end of the spectrum and the Left parties on the other. Is the premise on which the INDIA bloc came together (the pooling of the anti-BJP vote) too narrow a meeting ground for parties with disparate ideologies?

Hilal Ahmed: I won’t say that Indian politics is now completely governed by the logic of ideology. Rather, I would call it professionalism in politics. As (political scientist) Suhas Palshikar rightly identified, Hindutva hegemony is the dominant narrative in politics today. (Congress leader) Rahul Gandhi’s two Bharat Jodo Yatras tried to construct a different narrative based on social justice politics, which centred both caste and economic disparity. Before the 2024 general elections, the regional parties in the INDIA bloc too contributed to this narrative, but it was limited. One of the outcomes of the 2024 elections was that for the first time, the BJP’s Hindutva agenda was significantly challenged by the narrative of social justice. It even forced Prime Minister Narendra Modi to interpret social justice through the prism of Hindutva. The Congress manifesto was the most significant political document in the last 10 years, but it wasn’t accepted by the other INDIA bloc partners. In the (Assembly) elections that have happened since the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, this narrative of social justice has been compromised. The failure of the INDIA bloc to come up with an alternate narrative in these elections is one of the reasons for this.

K.K. Kailash: Coalitions with far more disparate allies have stuck together and continued for a term as part of a ruling coalition. The NDA government under Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee (1999-2004) is a good example of this. Despite the 2002 riots in Gujarat and the discomfort that it caused to some of the allies, the coalition stuck together until the BJP decided to call for early elections.

Comparative studies show that there is no coalition in opposition. The willingness of the Opposition to form a pre-electoral coalition increases only when constituents think that the incumbent regime is weak and will likely be defeated. The 2024 general elections gave the Opposition such a moment. But once the BJP came back to power, the moment passed. Now, we are back to business as usual.

A source of tension within the INDIA bloc is the constituents’ relation to the Congress. There has been enduring criticism that the Congress is the weakest link in the bloc. Do you agree with the criticism?

Hilal Ahmed: The Congress is the only pan-India party in the Opposition coalition. When we say the Congress is weak, I think that weakness could have two meanings. A coalition requires an anchor. This anchoring can come intellectually as well as by making strategic alliances at a time when there is no election. The Congress, with its Bharat Jodo Yatra, successfully consolidated the idea of India that was politically different from the BJP’s imagination. But the problem is that within the party, this idea has not been sustained. There was divergence between the central leadership and the regional players in the Congress on the question of extending reservation in the private sector in Karnataka. The Karnataka government is also dithering on publishing the caste census. If the Congress was strong in terms of ideas as well as organisation, it would be in a position to provide a leadership role to the other players of the India bloc.

K.K. Kailash: In a coalition, political parties do not give up their individual identities. Each of them has their own brand, which they want to protect. The Congress as a national party believes that it is more representative of India’s diversity and therefore encompassing of society’s interests, whereas the State-based political parties have lower stakes; they are more concerned about a smaller pool of supporters and a subset of policy decisions. To put the entire onus on the Congress would not be fair.

Does the Indian Opposition really need to work under a common umbrella?

Hilal Ahmed: I think it is important to look at what we call an Opposition. Is it simply an electoral vehicle? In a liberal democracy, the Opposition’s role goes beyond just contesting elections. The INDIA bloc came into existence on the premise that the BJP got only 37% of the votes in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and yet came to power because of a fragmented Opposition. But it did not have a common minimum programme. There is no clarity on what the alliance stands for and why. The only clear goal it has is that it wants to defeat the BJP. The Delhi Assembly election, for instance, is being fought entirely on Delhi issues (by the AAP and Congress); their campaigns do not reflect their national agenda. In contrast, the BJP’s campaign is a regional interpretation of its national agenda. Opposition unity will become meaningful only when there is a national agenda which can be interpreted regionally. Just professionally opposing the BJP to form the government would be a narrow meaning of the term Opposition.

K.K. Kailash: We need to make a distinction between the Opposition as a normative idea and an empirical manifestation. During elections, we see the empirical manifestation. Between elections, the normative idea comes out much more clearly. Remember that the Opposition is a very integral element of any liberal democracy. This means that there is a right to publicly oppose and criticise the actions and policies of the government of the day. This automatically means that there is space for a plurality of ideas. Between elections, the Opposition needs to focus on this normative aspect and this could happen in a variety of ways. For example, it could actually do what we could call ‘legitimacy infirming’ actions. Basically, these activities might not remove the ruling regime, but will discredit it and raise doubts about it. Take the issue of the politics of welfare. I think we have reached saturation point with every political party promising the same thing. The Opposition should push for accountability and ask whether the welfare schemes are actually reaching the people it is meant for. The Opposition for long has been focusing on issues such as high-level corruption, cronyism, etc., which are far removed from the everyday lives of individuals. They may galvanise the core supporter, but do not necessarily make a difference to the classes. There is no need for the Opposition to work under one umbrella; each individual party could do this on their own. During a non-election time, a disjointed Opposition is useful because it creates multiple battlegrounds for the ruling party. This gives the Opposition more chances compared to having just one agenda and constantly pushing it.

Listen to the conversation in The Hindu Parley podcast

Published – January 31, 2025 01:25 am IST