NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg holds a gavel as he attends a meeting of the North Atlantic Council in the NATO defence ministers’ session at the Alliance’s headquarters in Brussels, Belgium on February 15.
| Photo Credit: REUTERS
The story so far: Western powers joined Ukraine last weekend to mark two years of Russian aggression on its territory, as concerns grow that the conflict could spread into Europe. On the other hand, Jens Stoltenberg, secretary-general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), sounded emphatic on the inevitability of Kyiv joining the military bloc. However, that question appears unlikely to elicit consensus among member states any time soon.
What was the reason for the Russian invasion?
In 2008, NATO leaders declared their intention to admit Georgia and Ukraine to the bloc, although no timelines were indicated. The step must have been provocation enough for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has been steadfast in his opposition to NATO expansion, especially into the heart of the former United Soviet Socialist Republic (USSR). Within months, President Putin sent tanks rolling into Tbilisi. In 2014, Moscow annexed Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula and in February 2022 launched a full-scale war on the nation. If Kyiv is admitted now it would automatically kickstart NATO’s Article 5 mutual defence provision, which stipulates that an attack on one member would be construed as an attack against all. Indeed, nothing less would reassure Kyiv, which gave up its nuclear arsenal in exchange for security guarantees by the U.S. and the U.K.
What is the status of the war now?
The most immediate concern is the severe depletion in Ukraine’s artillery ammunition on the battlefield, which poses a challenge to hold back Russian troops along a 1,500 km frontline. According to the country’s defence minister Rustem Umerov, the current shortfall, which has already increased Ukrainian casualties, allows Kyiv to fire barely a third of the absolute minimum of some 6,000 rounds of artillery shells it needs daily. On the other hand, according to western intelligence, Russian land forces have sustained an estimated 2,00,000 deaths and injuries since the onset of the conflict. Moscow achieved a breakthrough when Ukraine withdrew from the strategic city of Avdiivka, ascribed by the country’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to acute shortages in Kyiv’s artillery firepower. The latter’s withdrawal from Avdiivka is reportedly the first major victory for Russian forces since the capture of Bakhmut city.
What has been the U.S.’s role so far?
While the U.S. has been the largest arms contributor to the war effort, a $60 billion aid bill to Ukraine has been stalled in Congress. The Republican-dominated House of Representatives have refused to approve the financial package, caving into former President Donald Trump’s pressure tactics. Hardline Republican voices have grown louder in arguing that it is about time that Europe took full responsibility for its own security and worked as an equal partner with the U.S.
What about the EU?
The 27-nation bloc recently overcame Hungarian hurdles to finance a €5 billion deal over four years to the Ukrainian economy. But governments are now squabbling over ways to top-up the €12 billion European Peace Facility (EPF) they had established to support Ukraine’s war effort, funded by national contributions outside the bloc’s common budget. Germany insists that the value of the weapons it supplies bilaterally should be factored into contributions to the common pool, while others feel that this would shrink the fund’s volume. Moreover, some countries want that expenditure from the EPF to support the bloc’s defence industry.
What is the road ahead?
It appears to be a pretty long one. Ukraine’s full NATO membership is not on the table yet. For the time being, NATO has sought to assuage Ukraine’s concerns by formalising current mechanisms of cooperation, which would empower Kyiv to call emergency meetings and ensure greater participation. President Putin’s likely victory in a sham election in March and Mr. Trump’s possible return to power later this year presents a predicament hard to contemplate for Ukraine.
The writer is Director, Strategic Initiatives, AgnoShin Technologies.
