With less than four weeks left for the German national elections, the topic of migration has come back to the forefront following a knife attack in South Germany on January 22 that led to the death of two people, including a two-year-old boy.
The two political parties leading in national polls, the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), quickly called for stronger immigration regulations.
Friedrich Merz, the CDU’s chancellor candidate, said that if he were to become the chancellor, he would permanently close German borders on day one.
Anti-immigration speeches following the attack from CDU and AfD led to the passing of a non-binding motion to tighten immigration rules in the German Parliament on January 29. The motion proposed by the CDU was only passed with the help of AfD, making it the first time in post-war German history that a motion was passed with the help of a far-right party.
Despite being the second-strongest party in terms of polls (20%), the AfD is classified as a suspected right-wing extremist group by the country’s security service.
“It’s a fatal sign for the future of German politics. I fear that this populistic debate is just strengthening the AfD and will weaken the entire democratic spectrum in the country,” said Tareq Alaows, refugee policy spokesperson for PRO Asyl, a pro-immigration advocacy group.
In German politics, one often hears the word ‘Brandmauer’ or firewall, where mainstream parties have resolved never to work with, pass laws with the support of, or form government coalitions with the far-right AfD. That resolve was somewhat breached when CDU passed a motion with the AfD’s support. This prompted immediate protests among citizens and the mainstream democratic parties as a metaphorical “red line” was crossed.
Ferdinand Mirbach, Senior Expert, Immigration Society and Global Issues at the Stuttgart-based Robert Bosch Foundation, noted that the attack on January 22 has already had a concrete impact as migration and integration have become central election campaign topics.
“The conservative CDU, clearly leading in current polls, has sharpened its rhetoric on migration. The AfD feels that its convictions have been confirmed and is trying to use the sad event to its advantage,” said Mr. Mirbach, noting that peace and security, the economy and social justice still seem to be the more important issues for an electoral decision, per many surveys.
On January 31, an “Influx Limitation Law” was put to vote. After many deliberations and delays, this law couldn’t gather enough votes to win. Again, the CDU and AfD voted on the same side.
According to Mr. Mirbach, whether this risk will pay off for Mr. Merz is questionable.
“There is a lot of criticism of this step even from the CDU: from prime ministers from German federal states and – as the most prominent voice – from former Chancellor Angela Merkel. I firmly assume that after the federal election, if the CDU wins, it will look for majorities in the democratic centre,” said Mr Mirbach. The ‘democratic centre’ in question is the mainstream parties such as the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) and environmental Greens who voted against CDU’s proposals on January 29 and 31.
According to migration analyst Marcus Engler at DeZIM Institute, migration debates are nothing new and will continue as there are always elections.
“The radicalisation of the conservative CDU began a few years ago. They hoped that it would reduce support for the far-right AfD. But this assumption proved deeply flawed, as it’s not working. AfD support has only increased over the years,” said Mr. Engler.
Fourth lone-wolf attack
The knife attack was committed in Aschaffenburg in the south German state of Bavaria by an Afghan asylum seeker. According to Bavaria’s interior minister, Joachim Hermann, the alleged attacker is a 28-year-old psychiatric patient who arrived in Germany in late 2022 and sought asylum. His application was rejected, and he agreed to leave Germany by December 2024, but that never happened.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) condemned the attacks and expressed weariness about such attacks. He also called for an investigation as to why the attacker wasn’t deported from Germany on time. Authorities have ruled out any terror motive in this attack.
“I am tired of these violent crimes occurring every few weeks, perpetrated by individuals who came to us seeking protection,” Mr. Scholz said. “Misguided tolerance has no place here”.
This knife attack is the fourth such lone-wolf attack in less than two years.
On December 20, 2024, a Saudi psychiatrist allegedly drove an SUV into a Christmas market in the German city of Magdeburg, killing six and injuring 299. In August 2024, a Syrian asylum seeker who was supposed to leave Germany allegedly stabbed and killed three in the West German town of Solingen. In May 2024, an Afghan national reportedly stabbed a police officer and injured three people in a knife attack in Mannheim.
In mid-January, a regional branch of the AfD party was investigated for its election campaigning tactics, which involved distributing flyers resembling fake aeroplane boarding passes. These flyers advertised a one-way ticket for “Illegal immigrants” from “Germany” to “safe country of origin.”
AfD’s chancellor candidate, Alice Weidel, has also normalised the word “remigration” by using it in her many campaign speeches. This term drew nationwide protests last year after a secret meeting of right-wing extremists was exposed.
According to the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees, asylum applications to Germany have dropped 34% from over 3,20,000 in 2023 to under 2,14,000 in 2024. But that hasn’t stopped constant debates around migration.
“Germany is lacking on all ends; there is no sufficient housing, the infrastructure on the constituency level is insufficient, and people’s salaries aren’t enough anymore since the inflation and the increase of prices. Nobody discusses social politics, but everybody talks about migration,” said Mr. Alaows.
The German economy has been weak, with two consecutive years of negative growth. In terms of housing, the outgoing government had declared building 400,000 new flats per year. However, as per the Ifo Institute for Economic Research, only around 2,45,000 new flats were built in 2024 and 2,10,000 in 2024.
Political disenfranchisement
According to a study conducted by the Robert Bosch Foundation, despite 30% of German citizens directly or indirectly having foreign roots, only 11% of the members of the current Bundestag have a migration background. Mr. Mirbach calls it a systematic issue.
“There are too few networks or support structures that would outweigh the disadvantages these people struggle with: racial discrimination on the one hand or tokenism on the other,” said Mr. Mirbach.
Mr. Alaows feels rational debates are missing in the German parliament, and it’s easy for politicians to remain in their comfort zone and use migrants as scapegoats.
“In the Bundestag, we hardly have people who could tell how difficult it is for people to be on the run. These perspectives are missing, and debates would be carried out entirely differently if people affected by this were in the Bundestag,” said Mr. Alaows, who was planning to stand for elections in the 2021 national elections but withdrew his application following threats and racist attacks. He prefers to continue his political work through civil society.
As of 2021, 14% of German voters have a non-German background, and with naturalizations increasing, this number is likely to increase by now. According to numerous sociological studies, voters of this kind are more likely to vote for political parties fielding candidates from their community.
“Turning more towards migrant voters should, therefore be in the interest of democratic parties to prevent an erosion of social cohesion and to get their votes, which can be decisive in elections,” noted Mr Mirbach.
Firewall crumbling?
In September 2024, following the AfD’s win in two German states, Mr. Merz said that “the CDU would be selling its soul if it cooperated with the AfD.” Fast-forward to last week, and Mr Merz said he was willing to pass legislation for stricter migration measures irrespective of which party supported him.
“What is right in the matter does not become wrong because the wrong people agree,” said Mr. Merz.
The major demands of Mr. Merz’s five-point plan in the non-binding motion passed on January 29 included permanent border controls, rejection of irregular arrivals, i.e., asylum seekers, detention of people whose asylum applications are rejected, and significantly increasing the number of deportations and restrictions on residency rights, including family reunions.
Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens) rejected this proposal, saying it violates European principles and would be impossible to implement.
While this proposal has been passed, it clashes with many European-wide laws. A blanket rejection of asylum seekers violates the Dublin Regulations, which stipulate that asylum seekers’ requests must be processed in the first country they enter and that they must be taken into the country before they can be deported. The proposal also contravenes the German Basic Law, which promises the right to asylum. Germany currently has a temporary border control across its nine land borders that will last till March 2025.
“Apart from the many legal aspects, the other obstacle is the capacity to enforce such a policy, which is impossible. How many police officers can be posted on the borders for checks?” asks Mr. Engler, noting that it would also negatively impact the economy and trade in the country.
Mr. Alaows said that there’s a high level of political disenfranchisement among migrants when mainstream parties compromise the so-called firewall.
“Many people feel pushed away from mainstream politics when they are all put under general suspicion, as has happened last week in the Bundestag. The indirect impact is attacks on migrants and refugees by extremists that have been on the rise in the last years,” noted Mr. Alaows.
Mr. Engler concurs. “It’s not just asylum seekers who are afraid but also highly qualified migrants—who Germany needs—who are feeling rejected,” he said.
Criticism from all corners
On February 2, around 1,60,000 citizens collected in central Berlin to protest against CDU partnering with AfD to pass a motion.
Even former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who belongs to the same party as Mr. Merz and has barely commented on domestic politics since she departed from office in 2021, broke her silence to criticise Mr. Merz.
“I consider it wrong to abandon this commitment and, as a result, to knowingly allow a majority with AfD votes in the Bundestag for the first time,” said Ms. Merkel.
Historically, Ms. Merkel and Mr. Merz have had political differences. It’s said that Mr. Merz left the CDU after disagreements with Ms. Merkel in 2005 and only returned to politics after Ms. Merkel’s retirement in 2021. Ms. Merkel was also responsible for opening the borders for close to a million Syrian migrants in 2016 when they were escaping the civil war back home. Mr. Merz has routinely blamed Ms. Merkel’s migration policies.
Ms Merkel’s words definitely seem to have had some impact. On January 31, when the “Influx Limitation Law” (proposed by Mr Merz’s Christian Democrats) was tabled, 12 parliamentarians belonging to the CDU/CSU voted against it. The law’s significant proposals were limited immigration, limited family reunification, and more powers for the border police. Had it passed, it would have been the first in post-war German history that a law was passed with support from a far-right party. Even during the protests on February 2, many citizens had placards berating Mr.Merz to pay attention to Ms. Merkel.
At CDU’s party congress on February 3, Mr. Merz reiterated his stand on the AfD: “We will never work with the party Alternative for Germany (AfD), not before the election, not after – never.”
However, the CDU has seen a 2% drop in its poll numbers since last week. At 28%, the CDU/CSU tops the polls, followed by AfD at 20%, SPD at 16%, and Greens at 15%. Not everyone in the CDU/CSU agrees with Mr Merz’s stance, thereby adding a certain level of uncertainty to the CDU campaign.
“The polls don’t show a stable majority right now. If Mr. Merz continues this aggressive migration stance, it will trigger a political conflict,” said Mr. Engler.
(Nimish Sawant is an independent journalist based in Berlin)
Published – February 08, 2025 01:03 am IST
