Supporters of former U.S. President Donald Trump celebrate after the Fox Network called the election in his favour at the site of his rally.
| Photo Credit: Reuters
Donald Trump won not just the electoral college but also the popular vote by sweeping the ‘swing States’ that were expected to feature a close contest between him and Kamala Harris.
While the margins of victory for Mr. Trump were the lowest in the seven swing States — Wisconsin (about 1% point), Michigan (1.6 points), Georgia (2 points), Pennsylvania (2 points), North Carolina (3 points), Nevada (5 points), and Arizona (5 points) — the fact that he won all of them shows the frailty of Ms. Harris’ campaign and the Democratic Party’s inability to secure enough votes in these regions. These numbers were as of 9:00 p.m. IST on Wednesday.
Nearly 80% of the entire advertising budget spent by both parties was concentrated in the seven swing States. Close to $575 million was spent on advertisements in Pennsylvania alone by the two parties, with the Democrats allocating $300 million. They outspent the Republicans across the seven States, yet came up short.
We look at the swing in vote shares for Trump (in red arrows) and Kamala Harris compared to the 2020 presidential elections in counties across swing States. The larger the arrow, the higher the vote share increase for the candidate. For example, a blue arrow pointing left corresponds to an increase in vote share for Democrats (for Harris) compared to what Joe Biden garnered in the 2020 elections.
A red arrow pointing right does the same for Trump. Only those counties were considered where the votes were counted more than 95% of the registered electorate.
The chart shows the performance of the candidates in the “Rust Belt” States
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The chart shows the performance of the candidates in the “Sun Belt” States
The Republicans gained almost universally across these States (data for Nevada was not fully available as we went to press), especially in the rural areas, which were already Mr. Trump’s bastions in 2016 and 2020. Ms. Harris made some gains in the urban Atlanta area in Georgia and in some other urban parts of Michigan, but her inability to compete in the rural and suburban areas to the extent that Joe Biden did in 2020 led to her undoing.
The seven swing States were not uniform in terms of demography and topography. Those in the mid-West (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) have a white-dominated electorate, with a sizeable working class population and a good number of college-educated white people. This is where there has been deindustrialisation and urban decay (‘Rust Belt’).
Arizona and Nevada have a significant minority population, with a high number of Hispanics relative to the rest of the country, while Georgia and North Carolina have a higher proportion of African American voters besides a higher number of religiously motivated voters. That Ms. Harris could not translate her generic advantages across the aforementioned ‘Blue Wall’ Rust Belt States or the other tropical/warmer and economically surging ‘Sun Belt’ suggests that the coalition her campaign expected to stitch for her did not add up sufficiently. With working-class voters judging the Biden administration harshly on its handling of the economy, Mr. Trump seems to have benefited from a section of their support, as he did in 2016.
Hispanics voted in larger numbers for Mr. Trump, as per exit polls. Reuters reported a 13% point increase in Hispanic support for Mr. Trump compared to 2020. While Ms. Harris got higher support among women, that was not enough to bridge the gap in terms of male support for Mr. Trump across the swing States either.
Ms. Harris lost the popular vote in Dearborn, the city in Michigan with the largest Arab-American population in the U.S., 31%-46.7% to Mr. Trump (unofficial results by the city’s administration). That her party’s base was fractured over the Gaza issue was evident in exit polls in Michigan which showed that four out of 10 who believed that the U.S.’s support for Israel was too strong endorsed Mr. Trump.
Source: Associated Press, The New York Times
srinivasan.vr@thehindu.co.in
Also read:Indian Americans still back Harris, but are seeing Trump’s appeal
Published – November 08, 2024 08:00 am IST
