Venezuela is the headline risk this morning, but global markets are shrugging off the weekend action . US stock futures are up, Asian stock markets are up, and Gold and Silver are rising. Japan , South Korea, and Taiwan are all up more than 2%. Oil has been making two-way moves, starting lower, then going up, and at the time of writing, is flat to negative.
The markets are showing the classic reaction, where geopolitical developments are factored in quickly, and markets move back to underlying fundamentals after quickly discounting these . Venezuela has external loans of $ 150 bn and defaulted outstanding bonds at $60 bn. The Venezuela normalisation and resolution trade could be the biggest Emerging markets trade of the next decade. For now, the focus will be on how the political dispensation changes.
The focus this week will be on three key US economic data: the December payrolls data, the manufacturing and services growth, and the job openings data.
Indian markets surged on Friday to all-time records with FPIs turning net buyers. The outlook is positive this morning with Asian shares up and Indian Gift Nifty futures indicating a gap-up opening. This would build on Friday’s momentum.
