The story so far: The two foremost Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) of Russia and the U.S., the SU-57 and F-35, got a lot of attention at Aero India, which was held from February 10-14 in Bengaluru, with the former undoubtedly being the showstopper with its manoeuvres. Just as that wound up, U.S. President Donald Trump, addressing a press meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, said the U.S. is also paving the way to “ultimately” provide India with F-35 stealth fighters.
What’s the F-35?
The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter is a single seat, single-engine strike fighter jet with three variants, F-35A, which has a conventional take-off and landing for the Air Force, F-35B short take-off/vertical landing for the Marine Corps and an F-35C aircraft carrier variant for the Navy and the Marine Corps. In addition to the U.S., the programme has seven international partners, and 10 foreign military sales customers, and the jets are expected to be in service well into the 2080s. As of January 30, 2025, 1,110 F-35s were delivered, according to the lead contractor Lockheed Martin, with 20 participants in the programme.
Noting that it wasn’t a firm offer yet and what Mr. Trump meant was that they will look at a roadmap for making the F-35 available, Defence Secretary Rajesh Kumar Singh said recently that India “will look at that offer once it becomes a firm offer.” Pointing out that there is a protocol to be followed, he said that first requirements have to be raised by the services, and only then are options on offer studied. “Creating an option of this type is important for us and we will certainly look at it with an open mind,” he said.
The U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), which is mandated by the U.S. Congress to review the programme, said in a May 2024 report that the Department of Defence estimates that these development efforts — as well as the costs to maintain and operate the 2,470 planned aircraft through 2088 — will exceed $2 trillion. Based on various estimates, the F-35 costs upwards of $100 million per aircraft with armaments and associated costs. India has never operated a U.S. fighter, and an advanced fighter like the F-35 will need new facilities for training and maintenance.
What is the status of the Russian fighter jet?
It is pertinent to note that in 2010, India and Russia signed a preliminary design agreement to jointly produce the FGFA, now the SU-57, for use by both countries after which each had invested $295 million for preliminary design which was completed in 2013. But protracted negotiations followed over the high cost and limited technology transfer. One of the limiting factors was that it was a single seater and the creation of a twin-seat variant, the IAF’s preference, would mean a steep rise in costs. India eventually pulled out of the FGFA project and decided to go with its indigenous FGFA, the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA).
What is the IAF’s squadron strength?
The IAF has a sanctioned strength of 42.5 fighter squadrons, but, is languishing today at 31 squadrons with a significant proportion of ageing platforms. “Somewhere India got left behind and is stuck in the middle. There is a big gap and major countries have moved forward,” noted a senior official. China, Russia and the U.S. have already fielded fifth generation fighter jets, with China recently stealing a march over everyone else as it flew two advanced fifth generation fighters, dubbed by some as a sixth-generation jet, in addition to the two jets already developed and inducted. Reports suggest that Pakistan is looking to acquire 40 J-35 fifth generation jets from China.
In December, the government constituted a high-level committee led by the Defence Secretary to chalk out a roadmap for the IAF and address operational gaps. The report which was scheduled to be submitted by end-January, is still in the works, officials confirmed.
What is in the pipeline?
India has an ambitious plan to acquire over 500 fighter jets, a bulk of them variants of the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) and the AMCA, that is at least a decade away from induction.
There has been a delay in the deliveries of 83 LCA-Mk1A already contracted, with 97 more to be ordered. The delay in deliveries has been partly due to engine delays from General Electric (GE), and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) has now assured that 12 jets will be delivered to the IAF this year; the order for 83 jets will be completed in three-and-a-half years. Officials said that the more capable LCA-Mk2 is expected to make first flight in early 2026. The AMCA prototype is expected to roll out by end-2026 or early-2027, certified by 2032 and ready for induction by 2034. In addition, there is the proposal for 114 Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) to be imported and licence-manufactured locally but has seen no progress for many years, with the Request For Information (RFI) issued in April 2019. However, given the gap in numbers, the MRFA as envisaged may now be too expensive and too late to address the crisis. Last October, IAF chief Air Chief Marshal A. P. Singh said the MRFA was “needed as on yesterday.”
While several experts and observers pitched for two F-35 squadrons as a stopgap, given the complex process and timelines, it would be a decade before the jets arrive. The 36 Rafale deal contracted at €7.87 billion from France in 2016 is a case in point. In addition, India had paid over €1 billion in one-time research and development costs for India-specific enhancements on the Rafales. Speeding up the domestic programmes is of critical importance as any new addition to the IAF’s already diverse fleet will create a maintenance nightmare and also take away focus and resources from indigenous efforts.
When did diversification begin?
Russian military hardware has constituted a bulk of the Indian military inventory, including the IAF, for decades and diversification began in the early 2000s. However, diversification shouldn’t mean moving from one dependency to another. As per the current plan, by early 2040, the IAF will have 220 LCA-Mk1 variants, at least 120 LCA-Mk2s and the initial batch of AMCAs, all powered by the GE F-404 and F-414 jet engines, a significant proportion of the fighter fleet.
The licence manufacture of the F-414 engine or the new 110KN engine, likely to be co-developed and co-produced with France for the AMCA-Mk2, will mean that India would be dependent on others for the most critical systems. The Indian aero engine space for both fixed wing and helicopters will be powered by the U.S. and France for the rest of the century, as French co-developed engines power India’s indigenous helicopters.
So adding new fighters, that too of the highest technological threshold of the U.S., would surely come with a lot of riders, some intrusive and some that could stymie operational flexibility and impact plans on indigenous manufacturing.
Published – February 23, 2025 02:55 am IST
