Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge with party leaders Sonia Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra during a public meeting, ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, in Jaipur, in April
| Photo Credit: PTI
The Congress’ performance in Rajasthan appears all the more dramatic in the backdrop of the clean sweep by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the last two parliamentary elections. After losing the Assembly election barely six months ago, the Congress-led alliance won 11 seats in the State. The BJP lost almost 9% points of the vote from 2019 and Congress improved its vote share by over 3 points.
The Congress performed admirably in the northern and eastern parts of the State, which shares borders with Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh, winning seven of the eight seats. This area actively participated in the farmers’ movement and was also affected by the Agniveer scheme. The BJP managed to retain its stronghold in the western and south-eastern parts, winning nine of the 12 seats. It won all the three constituencies of central Rajasthan.
Post-poll data show that the BJP once again drew substantial support from the urban, more educated, economically better-off, upper caste sections of the electorate in the State. The Congress in partnership with its allies drew most of its votes from the socially and economically underprivileged sections of society, i.e., Dalits, Adivasis, Muslims, the economically poor, the less literate voters, and rural voters (Table 1).
The following were the major factors responsible for the re-emergence of the Congress: effective social engineering through alliance partners, unity of purpose among the top leadership in the State, and selection of candidates.
On the other hand, the BJP appeared complacent and over-confident after its victory in the Assembly elections. That the party still won 14 seats could be explained by the fact that nearly one-third of the respondents in the post-poll survey appreciated ‘the construction of the Ram Mandir’ and the ‘promotion of Hindutva ideology’. Nearly two out of every 10 voters wanted to give the BJP another chance because of ‘good welfare schemes’, ‘good governance’ and ‘development in the country’ and the ‘strong leadership of Narendra Modi’.
The outcome of the Lok Sabha elections in Rajasthan has thus put paid to the possibility of one-party domination in the State. In fact, the result has once again led to a normalisation of political contest with both poles securing nearly equal support. The people’s verdict has led to a strengthening of bipolarity of political competition. At the same time, this verdict has also signified the emergence of effective regional players. A number of factors are going to make political contestation and governance interesting in the coming five years.
Sanjay Lodha is Lokniti-CSDS, State Coordinator, Rajasthan
