Change could be brewing in Haryana but so could a suspenseful finish

Congress leader Deepender Singh Hooda joins hands with party candidates from Sadhaura and Jagadhari assembly constituencies, Renu Bala and Akram Khan during the public meeting ahead of Haryana Assembly elections, in Yamunanagar on October 3, 2024
| Photo Credit: ANI

High-pitched electioneering drew to a close on Thursday (October 3, 2024) in Haryana, with polling slated for October 5. A narrative surrounding change appears to be brewing in the State but it could be influenced by multiple factors of electoral arithmetic, making the battle for the 90-member Assembly a close fight between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Indian National Congress.

The 2024 Haryana Assembly election looks set to be a direct contest between the decade-old ruling BJP regime, and its key challenger, the Congress, with the latter having an edge in perception. The BJP remains in the reckoning with new alliances. There are nearly 460 independent candidates, including rebels, in the fray.

Also Read:Decoding Haryana’s political landscape

Thirty-six castes make up Haryana’s social mosaic. In several constituencies, the narrow margin between winning and losing could be nerve-wracking. Haryana witnessed nail-biting finishes in the previous three Assembly elections. Election data show that in the 2019 Assembly election, the margin of victory was less than 5,000 votes in 25 out of 90 constituencies. Similarly, in the 2014 and 2009 Assembly elections, 27 and 31 constituencies, respectively, saw a victory margin of less than 5,000 votes.

In the forthcoming election, the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), a former coalition partner of the BJP, is contesting the poll in an alliance with the Azad Samaj Party-Kanshi Ram (ASP-KR). The Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) are also in the fray. The BSP and the ASP-KR stand on the Scheduled Castes (SC) plank. After seat-sharing talks failed with the Congress, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) also took the plunge by fielding candidates across the State. The Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) and the Haryana Lokhit Party have also joined the battle.

Every party is trying to rely on caste equations as politics revolves around coalitions of castes in Haryana. The BJP appears to be focusing on the consolidation of non-Jats, primarily the Other Backward Classes (OBC), who form about 35% of the State’s population. The extent of OBC consolidation would be critical to the party’s electoral performance. The party’s outreach to the SCs grew during the just-concluded campaign in an apparent bid to woo the crucial vote bank. 

While the BJP has faced the farmers’ ire from the time the year-long protests surrounding the now repealed Central government’s farm laws began, the Jats, an agrarian community making up about 22% of the population, appear inclined towards the Congress. The weakening of the INLD and the JJP, since they split in 2018, is seen as another reason why Jats are drawn to the Congress.

Both the INLD and JJP draw their support largely from the agrarian classes. Now, with the JJP-ASP and the INLD-BSP alliances on the ground, both are attempting to garner the support of the Jats and the SCs, which could sound alarm bells primarily for the Congress. The Congress saw an improvement in its vote share in SC-reserved seats in Haryana in the recent Lok Sabha election. The factionalism within the Congress’ State unit, even though the party keeps denying it, may prove costly.

SCs account for over 20% of the State’s population, and as the Congress and the BJP fight for this vote bank, the INLD-BSP, and the JJP-ASP alliance could electorally dent the mainstream parties, especially in closely contested seats, as division in votes is bound to occur. With a higher number of parties and contestants in the fray, there is a good chance that the margins of wins and losses will narrow down, making even a few thousand votes crucial.

The BSP has a specific SC vote bank that could dent other political parties, especially the Congress, which has traditionally been appealing to SC voters. The AAP is also expected to play spoilsport for both the BJP and the Congress in close to a dozen seats. The results on October 8 are likely to reveal the extent to which votes of the BJP and the Congress were dented.