Can Lando Norris whiz past Max Verstappen in an ever-tightening F1 title race?

After returning from the almost month-long summer break in late August, Formula One had four exciting races before going into hibernation again.

The 2024 season is the longest in the sport’s 75-year history, with a record 24 races, which necessitated this unusual autumn break.

Sprint to the finish

As the F1 circus gears up for the final sprint to the finish, with six races scheduled over the next eight weeks — starting this weekend in Austin — there is palpable excitement at the prospect of a close fight for both the drivers’ and constructors’ titles.

It’s not what many would have expected at the start of the year when Max Verstappen and Red Bull seemed destined for their third consecutive championship double.

Verstappen, gunning for his fourth drivers’ title, started by winning four of the first five races. After the Chinese GP, the Dutchman’s nearest rival was teammate Sergio Perez, who was 25 points behind.

But over the last 13 races, McLaren and Lando Norris have changed the complexion of the championship. The Woking-based outfit introduced a raft of upgrades in Miami, the sixth race of the year, where Norris claimed his maiden F1 win.

Over the last five months, McLaren has leapt forward. It has developed the fastest car on the grid. Around the same time, Red Bull, having hit a performance ceiling, gradually backslid. These twin occurrences have resulted in a dramatic turnaround on the leaderboard.

Eight-time champion McLaren, which leads Red Bull by 41 points, is on course for its first constructors’ crown since 1998. Significantly, the prestigious drivers’ title, which appeared a foregone conclusion when Verstappen moved 84 points ahead of Norris after the British GP, has tightened over the last six rounds.

While Verstappen still enjoys a 52-point lead, Norris is the in-form driver, having won two of the last four races. In the previous race in Singapore, Norris produced one of the most dominant drives of the season, beating Verstappen by more than 20 seconds.

Norris has been impressive in qualifying, taking five pole positions. His race execution has been top-notch on most weekends — he has shown great pace and tyre management.

Championship calculus

Looking at the arithmetic, a maximum of 180 points is still up for grabs for a driver, including three Sprint races (eight points for a win). A GP win and a fastest lap can help a driver pocket 26 points, which means Verstappen still has two entire race wins worth of cushion. At the same time, one bad result for the Dutchman can quickly turn the tide based on current trends.

The reigning champion’s big problem is that he (and his team) last won a race at the Spanish GP in June, eight races ago.

The fact that Verstappen is still the overwhelming favourite has much to do with him papering over Red Bull’s cracks. To illustrate, the three-time champion has scored 221 points since the Chinese GP, the same as Norris, whereas his teammate Perez has managed only 59.

While chasing down Verstappen is a mighty challenge, it is not implausible, considering McLaren enters every weekend holding an edge over its rivals, be it Red Bull, Mercedes or Ferrari.

Although the second-most successful F1 squad in history has won only five races in 2024, two fewer than Red Bull, McLaren has been the stronger performer for most of the season. It squandered a few wins because the race operations and strategy were not sharp enough.

A strength of McLaren has been its versatility. It is quick or nearly quick enough across a wide range of circuits, unlike the Mercedes and Ferrari, which are competitive on very specific layouts. Red Bull, meanwhile, has stopped being a threat at most venues but is consistently second or third-best, at least in Verstappen’s hands.

Even in the remaining six races, McLaren has no bogey tracks. Some of the circuits where McLaren has been really strong feature long medium-to-high-speed corners, which should suit it in Austin, Interlagos (Brazil) and Qatar. Red Bull will hope to compete in Mexico City, a place it has dominated in recent times, but it will be foolish to discount McLaren even there.

Red Bull faces a huge battle to get back on track, without the guidance of departing technical mastermind Adrian Newey. It is set to bring some new parts this weekend. Verstappen will pray that these upgrades help address some of Red Bull’s underlying weaknesses, especially the understeer handling, which he doesn’t like.

Norris needs to outscore Verstappen by almost nine points every weekend, something he has managed just once this year. Even if Norris were to claim all the remaining races (including bonus points for fastest lap and Sprints) and Verstappen shadows him to second everywhere, the latter would still win by one point.

But it is here that McLaren has an ace up its sleeve in Oscar Piastri. The Aussie can be the perfect rear-gunner, unlike Perez, who is too far off Verstappen to help him. Piastri is often much closer to Norris’ pace and can take points off Verstappen. Over the last six rounds, Piastri has often been very quick and outscored everyone, including his teammate, accumulating 113 points to Norris’ 108.

Norris, though, wouldn’t mind that, knowing the team has promised to put its full weight behind his title bid. If one were to rewind the clock to the Hungarian GP, Norris surrendered a win to his teammate after the strategists clumsily undercut him into the lead ahead of Piastri at the pit stop.

The team then corrected it by forcing a reluctant Norris to give up the position and telling him he might need Piastri’s help in a close title fight later in the season. The 24-year-old will now hope to reap the rewards of toeing the company line.

Ace up the sleeve: McLaren will be keen to deploy Oscar Piastri as a rear-gunner, who can both protect Norris and take points off Verstappen.
| Photo Credit:
Getty Images

Maximising his chances

As impressive as Norris has been, he will also be aware that his campaign has been far from perfect. He can’t afford the kind of mistakes he has made this year now that he has a car capable of winning at every venue and a team fully backing him.

A particular concern is his trouble in nailing the start, which has seen him relinquish his pole advantage quite a few times. He seemed to have overcome it in Singapore, but had a few near misses there that could have ended disastrously. He also let frustration get the better of him at Spa and Monza, overdriving the car. He must cut these errors out.

While the odds are stacked against him, this final run of races could be the making of Norris. It will be a test of his mettle in a tense championship battle. If he can maximise everything at his disposal, irrespective of the final outcome, Norris could stake his claim to being considered among the creme de la creme on the current grid.