​Tyranny of numbers: On States and the issue of delimitation 

The call at an all-party meeting chaired by Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M.K. Stalin, in Chennai on Wednesday (March 5, 2025), to freeze the strength of the Lok Sabha and State Assemblies for 30 years beyond 2026 might seem like pushing away a pressing problem into the distant future. The challenges in 2056, when delimitation is eventually taken up, could be far more complex than those of the last exercise, conducted after the Delimitation Commission was set up in 2002. Even if the northern States bring down the fertility rate to replacement level by that time, the grouse of the southern States, that seat share as a proportion of the total strength of the Lok Sabha will come down, will still not find redress. Moreover, the imbalance in the number of electors across constituencies varies in each State. Between 2004 (the last general election before the 2008 delimitation) and 2024, the country’s electorate has grown by approximately 45%. In just over 15 years, there has been significant malapportionment in many constituencies. In Karnataka, Bangalore North has 3.2 million voters, while Udupi Chikmagalur, with an electorate of just under 1.6 million, has less than half that number. One solution, doubtless a partial one, could be to allow delimitation within each State, but not across the country. This would be in keeping with federal principles but might be unfair to large States that have seen a huge, disproportionate population jump over the last 50 years.

The concerns of the southern States regarding a potential unfair outcome are valid. There is a risk of losing significant representation in the Lok Sabha if population strictly governs seat allocation. However, the Constitution recognises that apportionment should be done “so far as practicable”, allowing room for considerations beyond mere numbers. Mr. Stalin has expressed apprehension that if the 2026 Census data is used as the basis for delimitation, and Tamil Nadu’s seat share is reduced, it would lead to “indelible injustice”. The all-party meeting rightly pointed out that Tamil Nadu is not opposed to delimitation per se, but that the process should not penalise progressive States (the entire southern region). Since delimitation has remained a contentious issue, the Union government should build a consensus on the terms of reference for the next Delimitation Commission. A transparent and inclusive approach can help restore the missing trust between the ruling party at the Centre and the non-BJP Opposition. Moreover, those advocating for an early delimitation should respect the Constitution’s federal character and demonstrate flexibility in addressing regional concerns.