Time for truce: On the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Ukraine’s decision to accept an ‘immediate, interim’ 30-day ceasefire with Russia, which can be extended upon mutual agreements, is an important first step towards shutting down the three-year-long war. The decision, announced in a joint statement issued by the U.S. and Ukraine, after senior-level talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, also shows that U.S. President Donald Trump’s heavy-pressure tactics seem to be working on Kyiv, at least for now. Until recently, Ukraine had ruled out any ceasefire, arguing that Moscow would use a truce to rearm itself. Ukraine, which had demanded a complete Russian withdrawal from all the territories it had captured, including Crimea, as a pre-condition for talks, had floated the idea of freezing the conflict on the current line of contact in return for NATO membership. Later, Kyiv’s demand shifted to security guarantees from the West. But the Trump administration ratcheted up the pressure by halting all military assistance and intelligence sharing. Up against the wall in Jeddah, Ukraine accepted the American proposal and agreed to sign a mineral deal “to expand Ukraine’s economy” and guarantee its “long-term prosperity and security”. The U.S. immediately resumed military and intelligence assistance for Kyiv.

But more complicated is the next step. The ball is now “in Russia’s court”, said Marco Rubio, the U.S. Secretary of State, after the Jeddah talks. U.S. officials are expected to travel to Moscow to discuss the proposal. If there is a ceasefire, Russia and Ukraine are expected to begin direct talks, to bring the war to a definite end. But, both sides have escalated their air war. Last week, Russia launched massive missile and air strikes on Ukraine, targeting its energy infrastructure. On Tuesday, hours before the Jeddah talks began, Ukraine unleashed its largest drone strike on several parts of Russia, including Moscow. Russia is also making dramatic advances in its Kursk region, where Ukraine still holds on to some territory. If Mr. Trump had leverage over Ukraine with which he forced Kyiv into accepting his proposal, he has very little influence over the Kremlin. But Russia should see the tilt in Washington and the U-turn in Kyiv as an opportunity. It has also suffered huge losses and its relationship with the West, in particular with Europe, has been badly damaged. Its economy is under heavy sanctions. The U.S. has already accepted some of Vladimir Putin’s demands, such as ruling out NATO membership for Ukraine. Instead of continuing this disastrous, illegal war, which has claimed tens of thousands of lives on both sides, the Kremlin should respond positively to the offer for truce and start direct talks with Ukraine to find a lasting solution to the conflict.