“Census data are essential for many purposes, including the implementation of welfare schemes. To illustrate, the number of people benefiting from subsidised food rations would increase by more than 100 million if updated census figures were available to revise the coverage of the National Food Security Act” File
| Photo Credit: The Hindu
Why has the 2021 Census been delayed for so long? Here is one plausible answer: the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is delaying the Census because it wants to fast-track the “delimitation” exercise in anticipation of the 2029 Lok Sabha elections.
If this sounds absurd, think again. The 84th amendment of the Constitution clearly states that the next delimitation exercise is to be based on the first census after 2026. If the next census happens, say, in 2024 or 2025, then delimitation will have to wait until after the following census, i.e. sometime in the 2030s. So, if the BJP wants delimitation before the 2029 elections, then it must continue to drag its feet on the census until 2026 or even 2027 (since a 2026 census may not qualify as having taken place “after 2026”).
Delimitation refers to periodic attempts to ensure that the shares of different States in Lok Sabha seats are similar to their respective population shares, and also that all constituencies have the same population size as far as possible, as required under Article 81 of the Constitution. As is well known, the forthcoming delimitation exercise is likely to shift the balance of Lok Sabha seats in favour of States that have experienced relatively fast population growth since 1973, when the last inter-State delimitation was carried out (based on the 1971 Census). This means, in particular, that the seat shares of the northern States will grow at the expense of the southern States. Naturally, this is a can of worms. Some of the southern States may rebel. If the BJP is able to get away with this, however, its electoral prospects will improve, since it has a much stronger base in the north than in the south.
The Opposition could try to thwart this plot by insisting on the timely completion of the Census, before 2026. There is certainly an objective argument for it. Census data are essential for many purposes, including the implementation of welfare schemes. To illustrate, the number of people benefiting from subsidised food rations would increase by more than 100 million if updated census figures were available to revise the coverage of the National Food Security Act. Postponing the Census deprives many people of essential entitlements. The Opposition could feed two birds with one crumb by insisting on an early census and deferred delimitation. The issue could also be taken to the Supreme Court: setting the date of the Census is the Central government’s privilege under the law but postponing the 2021 Census by more than five years can be construed as an abuse of privilege and infringement of people’s fundamental rights.
However, there is a catch, or so it may seem. This catch is related to women’s reservation. The 106th amendment of the Constitution, passed last September, provides for one-third reservation of seats for women in the Lok Sabha and State Assemblies. Under Section 5, this is due to come into effect “after an exercise of delimitation is undertaken for this purpose after the relevant figures for the first census taken after [2023] have been published” (emphasis added). So far, this has been interpreted to mean that women’s reservation would begin after the larger delimitation exercise required by the 84th amendment. In that case, an early census would postpone women’s reservation, by postponing delimitation. However, the words “for this purpose” in Section 5 can also be read to mean that women’s reservation could proceed on the basis of its own delimitation exercise (involving nothing more than the designation of “women only” constituencies) in advance of the larger delimitation exercise. Therefore, nothing prevents the Opposition from arguing for (1) an early Census, (2) women’s reservation from then onwards under the 106th amendment, and (3) delimitation later on (sometime in the 2030s) under the 84th amendment.
How much is the BJP likely to gain from delimitation? Before June 4, 2024, it seemed like it had a lot to gain because it had overwhelming support in the northern States and very little in the south. Today, that picture has changed, as the BJP lost ground in the north but gained some in the south. Nevertheless, the BJP still has a strong stake in delimitation. To see this, consider the following exercise. If the seat shares of political parties within States were to be kept constant even as the 543 Lok Sabha seats were redistributed across States in proportion to their current population, how would this affect the overall seat shares of the NDA and INDIA coalitions today? The answer is that the NDA’s seat share would rise by about 3 percentage points, from 54% (294 seats out of 543) to 57%, while INDIA’s share would drop by 2 percentage points or so. In absolute terms, this means that the NDA would have about 309 seats instead of 294 – an extra 15 seats. This is a big deal. The reverse side of the coin, however, is that delimitation might lead to a backlash against the BJP in the south. The BJP may or may not decide to cross that creaky bridge before 2029.
The fact remains that postponing the Census is hard to justify. Aside from obstructing women’s reservation, it deprives millions of people of essential entitlements. They should not be held hostage to any party’s electoral stratagems.
Jean Drèze is Visiting Professor at the Department of Economics, Ranchi University.
