India is at a pivotal moment in its history. It is among the leading nations in the world when it comes to economic growth and political stability. India today projects an atmosphere of peace, which is seemingly out of place in a world that is undergoing a profound shift in its economic and geo-political landscape. India is today privy to the rise of new economic and political groupings.
The year 2024 was a period of pronounced political uncertainty across the globe. Much of the world was a mute witness to the multiple and concurrent conflicts that threaten peace and stability today. This is specially true of Europe and West Asia.
One major tragedy still unfolding is Gaza, which has few parallels, while the ongoing Ukraine conflict contains the seeds of a much wider conflict in the future. India has, however, managed to steer itself successfully within this geo-political landscape.
A year of new troubles
This may, however, be too good to last. The year 2025 seems poised to bring in a host of fresh troubles that will require deft handling on the part of India’s policymakers. At this time, it might, hence, be wise for India’s leaders to heed the message contained in an ancient Chinese saying that says ‘the wind sweeping through the tower heralds a rising storm in the mountain’.
I begin by assessing the situation with India’s largest neighbour, China. Much is being made of the recent border negotiations and an apparent disengagement at the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh. This was followed by the first formal meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and China’s President Xi Jinping meeting in five years, as well as the resumption of the Special Representatives’ talks on border issues. Wiser heads would know that disengagement does not mean ‘dispute resolution’. The border conflict still remains alive and unchanged. Far more needs to be done to reach any kind of détente. India, hence, cannot afford to ‘take its eye off the ball’.
Meanwhile, China has, of late, taken a series of steps to strengthen security cooperation with nations of the Global South, which are aimed at outflanking India. It recently facilitated reconciliation talks that were held in Beijing among various Palestine factions. In September last year, China and African nations jointly agreed to progress the China-sponsored Global Security Initiative (GSI) and deepen cooperation in areas such as counter terrorism, disaster management and public health.
China also managed to steal a march over India during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit held in Pakistan in October. It took full advantage of the absence of the Indian Prime Minister at the Summit to mute India’s voice at a forum that is perceived as being anti-West. Mr. Xi again took full advantage of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit, in Peru in November, to strengthen ties with ‘traditional enemy’, Japan.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has since agreed with Mr. Xi to promote a ‘mutually beneficial relationship …based on common strategic interests’.
The churn in South and West Asia
It is in India’s traditional area of influence, viz., South Asia, however, that the biggest churn is taking place — or has already taken place. Questions have been raised after the ouster of the Sheikh Hasina regime in Bangladesh as to whether India indeed has a proper ‘neighbourhood policy’. Today, India appears almost isolated in the region and with the eclipse of Ms. Hasina and the emergence of a caretaker regime (which is openly hostile to India), India appears friendless.
Both Nepal and Sri Lanka today appear to look like ‘fair weather friends’ — at least in so far as the present is concerned. Where the Maldives stands, is indeed a subject to debate. Pakistan has always been inimical to India, and Afghanistan today does not seem to figure prominently in India’s calculations. Bhutan, under the present King, does not display the same warmth towards India, appearing more intent on balancing relations with China. Across the South Asia region, therefore, how the roll of the dice would turn out is a matter of speculation.
Far more problematic though could well be the impact of the current churn in West Asia, more specifically, the developments in Syria of late. The ouster of the Assad regime in Syria is certain to have a cataclysmic impact on that part of the world. In turn, it will have relevance for countries in the wider region as well, including India. How India deals with the situation resulting from the collapse of the erstwhile Bashar al-Assad regime, and the takeover of the reins by a Sunni group. the ‘Hayat Tahir al Shams (HTS)’ is unclear. Its leader, who carried the nom-de-guerre Abu Mohammed al Julani, has since reverted to his real name, Ahmed Hussain al Sharaa. The HTS leader was previously linked to al Qaeda, and even briefly flirted with the Islamic State (ISIS), but is today displaying a more moderate outlook. It may, however, be too early to determine what the outlook for Syria is, and for the region as a whole under the new dispensation.
The HTS was able to wage a successful offensive against the Assad regime largely because it could identify with the Sunni majority in Syria, in contrast to the Assad regime that had, of late, become more reliant on Russia and Iran to maintain its hold over the country. From India’s viewpoint, the Assad family (belonging to Syria’s Alawite group, a minority sect of Shia Islam) was initially viewed as a stabilising force in the Gulf region, especially during the difficult days that rocked parts of West Asia in the wake of the Arab Spring. India, home to a Shia and Sunni population, had greatly welcomed this. More recently, many of these perceptions had altered.
The implications of a Sunni regime in Syria are certain to be widespread. One by one, elements of the so-called ‘axis of resistance’ are being dismantled. On the other hand Israel, despite its pogrom in Gaza, seems to be gaining the upper hand in West Asia. Which side has gained the most, given recent developments in Syria, is not yet fully clear, but quite evidently, Iran has been a loser — and it might well result in Iran’s influence across West Asia declining. It may also no longer be the same revolutionary force in West Asia, that it was perceived to be following the 1979 revolution in Iran. The Ayatollahs in Iran are also set to face a major setback, and a major churn in Iran cannot be ruled out. The Shia world as a whole would, thus, be the overall loser, and militias such as the Hezbollah could well be cut to size.
Implicitly, the pro-Palestine movement would be adversely affected and Palestine may not persist as a live issue. Global jihad could also face a deathblow.
The biggest gainers will in all likelihood be Israel and Türkiye. Russia’s influence has suffered with the fall of the Assad regime. But given Russia’s relations with Türkiye’s strongman, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and the pragmatic approach taken by Russian President Vladimir Putin, Russia could well retrieve the situation.
Do not rule out the digital threat
In conclusion, it needs to be mentioned that notwithstanding the developments in the geo-political arena, it is the digital threat that is set to achieve a quantum leap during 2025. The situation warrants careful assessment and sending out of a dire warning about the dangers present in the digital arena. Some of this was evident during the latter part of 2024, but this is likely to grow exponentially during 2025. Convergence among technologies is threatening national infrastructure in a manner that had never previously been envisaged. According to data available with Agencies, there was a dramatic rise in cyber attacks occurring in India in the recent period. Almost all major companies and Government institutions were hit by denial of service and ransomware attacks. All this is set to increase in geometrical progression during 2025 and the following years.
M.K. Narayanan is a former Director, Intelligence Bureau, a former National Security Adviser, and a former Governor of West Bengal
Published – January 06, 2025 12:16 am IST
