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The making of Asia’s next tiger


As I landed in Da Nang, central Vietnam from Hanoi, greeted by the soft, salty air of the coast, my pickup driver struck up a conversation. He seemed exhausted yet content. “The last few months of winters have been hectic,” he said with a weary smile. “More than twenty international flights arrive daily now. At least 14 from South Korea alone, and several from China and Taiwan. No time to rest!” His words painted a clear picture — Vietnam’s tourism industry was booming, a testament to its growing global appeal.

Vietnam has rapidly emerged as an economic powerhouse in Southeast Asia, with a per capita GDP of around $5,000 whereas India’s per capita income is approximately $2,400. A former colleague of mine remarked that Vietnam could surpass Indonesia and Philippines in economic growth within the next few years. The numbers support this claim; foreign investment continues to pour in, particularly in manufacturing and technology, and the country’s integration into global supply chains is strengthening through agreements like the CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership) and RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) – the two major trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific region. Vietnam’s ability to attract tourists and investors alike is no accident—it is the result of strategic planning, infrastructure development, and an openness to global markets.

During my nearly two-week-long journey through Vietnam, I explored Hanoi, the charming town of Hoi An, and the bustling metropolis of Saigon, also known as Ho Chi Minh City. Each region revealed a distinct personality, yet together they illustrated a country that has mastered the balance between tradition and modernity. From the limestone karsts of Ha Long Bay to the pristine beaches of Da Nang, Vietnam’s landscapes are as diverse as they are breathtaking. There are many aspects related to the country that require unpacking.

One of the most compelling aspects of my journey was witnessing the seamless organization of Vietnam’s tourism industry. The efficiency and thoughtfulness put into catering to international travelers are notable—even surpassing some Western countries. From well-placed cafes near hop-on-hop-off stops to clear multilingual signage, the country prioritizes the comfort of visitors. Public transportation is easy to navigate, and key tourist hubs are designed with accessibility in mind.

Vietnam’s hospitality extends beyond logistics; it is deeply enmeshed in the culture. Vietnamese cuisine, renowned for its fresh ingredients and bold flavors, has become an international sensation. Pho, banh mi, and fresh spring rolls are now global staples, but nothing compares to savoring them on a busy street corner in Hanoi, watching life unfold in a rhythmic, harmonious dance of motorbikes, vendors, and locals chatting over tea and coffee. In many urban areas, motorbikes account for at least 60 % of the total vehicles on the road, offering a fast, affordable, and fuel-efficient alternative to cars. Their compact size allows riders to navigate through heavy traffic with ease, reducing commute times and enhancing mobility.

Beyond the culinary and scenic pleasures, my time in Vietnam also provided insight into what makes its tourism sector thrive—factors that South Asian countries struggle to replicate. Safety, particularly female, plays a crucial role in attracting international visitors. A noticeable trend I have observed during my decade-long experience in other parts of Southeast Asia is high female workforce participation in the region and the sense of security that comes with it. Women work late hours, confidently navigating the streets at night. This contributes to an overall environment of safety, something my Chinese-American friend from Seattle, who rents an apartment in Saigon, can attest to. “I’ve never once felt unsafe here,” she told me. In contrast, many South Asian cities continue to grapple with concerns about safety, which inevitably deters potential tourists.

The tourism industry in Vietnam contributes nearly 10% of the national GDP, playing a critical role in job creation. The government has invested in infrastructure, streamlined visa policies, and promoted cultural tourism, making it easier for visitors to explore. Many South Asian countries, despite having rich histories and stunning landscapes, struggle with safety concerns, and inconsistent urban planning—barriers that Vietnam has systematically overcome.

One of the most impressive aspects of Vietnam’s tourism industry is how it seamlessly integrates into everyday life. Night markets, for example, are not just tourist traps; they are vibrant centers of commerce where locals and travelers coexist, exchanging stories over sizzling plates of street food. One of the most striking aspects of Vietnam, especially for visitors from South Asia, is the cleanliness of its streets. Unlike many bustling cities in South Asia, where litter and waste management can be persistent challenges, Vietnam’s urban areas are remarkably well-maintained. Sidewalks in cities like Ho Chi Minh City are largely free of filth, with regular street cleaning and efficient waste disposal systems in place. Public spaces, including parks, markets, and even roadside eateries, are kept tidy, reflecting a strong sense of civic responsibility. This cleanliness enhances the overall experience for tourists, making Vietnam’s cities not only visually appealing but also more comfortable to explore.

Vietnam’s internal dynamics also play a crucial role in shaping its broader economic and political trajectory. The political and administrative elite largely come from the north, while the commercial establishment is concentrated in the south. However, these are broad strokes, as one can see continuing urban expansion in Hanoi, reflecting a gradual economic transformation in the capital. At the same time, Vietnam carefully navigates a complex geopolitical landscape, maintaining geostrategic equidistance between great powers such as China and the US. While balancing relationships with both, it also recognizes the necessity of engaging with them—a reality that is woven into the societal narrative of an otherwise tightly controlled political unit.

The fact that Vietnam has a tenuous history with the US, with which it fought a two-decade war, is undeniable. While the museums in Hanoi and Saigon constantly remind visitors of this dark chapter in history, there is surprisingly little animus against Americans. This speaks to the sagacity of Vietnam’s leadership, as the prevailing societal narrative distinguishes between the mistakes of political leaders and the ordinary American people or the present political elite. This pragmatic approach has allowed Vietnam to move forward, fostering trade, diplomacy, and tourism with its former adversary while keeping historical memory intact.

The opening up of Vietnam’s economy began in 1986 with the Đổi Mới (Renovation) reforms, as the country traversed from a centrally planned economy to a more market-oriented one. Vietnam’s economic transformation came in 1995 when the United States lifted its trade embargo, normalizing relations and opening the door for bilateral trade. This decision marked a turning point, leading to Vietnam’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2007 and strengthened its position as a key player in global trade. The country’s GDP has soared, and it is now seen as one of the fastest-growing economies in Southeast Asia. Vietnam has seen a significant rise in its expatriate population, driven by its rapid economic growth, business opportunities, and vibrant culture. Major cities like Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi have become hubs for foreign professionals and entrepreneurs attracted by the country’s low cost of living, dynamic job market, and thriving startup ecosystem.

Among the elite, there is attention on what comes out from the rising protectionism in the western world as this may apply brakes to the rapidly growing global trade. In 2024, the trade relationship between Vietnam and the United States experienced significant growth. According to the General Department of Vietnam Customs, the two-way trade turnover exceeded $132 billion. Vietnam’s exports to the U.S. were nearly $119 billion, marking a 23.3% increase compared to the previous year, while imports from the U.S. reached $13 billion, up 7.3% year-on-year.

In the first term, President Donald Trump’s trade policies, particularly his emphasis on tariffs and protectionism, significantly impacted global trade, including South East Asia. Major changes in tariffs under his administration included higher duties on Chinese goods, leading to supply chain disruptions and trade shifts. As a result, many South East Asian countries, such as Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia, saw an increase in manufacturing investments as companies sought alternatives to China to avoid tariffs. While this created new economic opportunities for the region, it also introduced uncertainties, as shifting U.S. policies could affect long-term trade stability. Additionally, increased tariffs on steel, electronics, and other goods impacted exports from South East Asia to the U.S., prompting the region to explore new trade alliances and diversify their markets.

There is a risk that Vietnam could face its own trade pressures from the U.S. President Trump has previously labeled Vietnam as a “trade abuser” due to its growing trade surplus with the U.S. If he were to impose tariffs on Vietnamese exports—such as textiles, electronics, and furniture—it could harm Vietnam’s economic growth. It remains to be seen that how the second Trump presidency impacts Vietnam and whether it brings economic gains for Vietnam by accelerating trade diversification away from China or there is an increased scrutiny and potential tariffs on Vietnamese exports.

With China, the history is even more complicated. The public narrative often emphasizes that China occupied Vietnam for 1,000 years, reinforcing a sense of national identity rooted in resistance. However, the actual history is more nuanced. For many centuries, the official script of Vietnam was Classical Chinese (Mandarin). Introduced through Chinese rule and influence, it was used for government administration, literature, and scholarly works. Over time, Vietnam developed its own variation, which adapted Chinese characters to represent native Vietnamese words. However, Mandarin-based scripts remained dominant in official records and scholarly circles until the 20th century. With French colonization in the 19th century, the Latin-based script, which was easier to learn and promote literacy, gradually replaced Chinese characters. Today, Quốc Ngữ, the Latin-based script, is the official script of Vietnam, but historical texts in Mandarin remain an important part of the country’s cultural, historical and linguistic heritage.

Ethnic and cultural ties between northern Vietnam and China run deep, with highland ethnic groups in Vietnam sharing strong affiliations with some of the ethnic communities across the border in the north. This intricate relationship with China—marked by historical conflict, cultural exchange, and contemporary economic ties—continues to influence Vietnam’s approach to its powerful northern neighbor. Celebrated anthropologist James Scott, who passed away in July 2024, devised a framework to understand the periphery of Southeast Asian countries. To him, it was a “site of secessionist movements, indigenous rights struggles, millennial rebellions, regionalist agitation, and armed opposition to lowland states… In the pre-colonial period, the resistance can be seen in a cultural refusal of lowland patterns and in the flight of lowlanders seeking refuge in the hills,” he wrote in his celebrated book, The Art of Not Being Governed. The trend continues to persist, with ethnic minorities in highland areas often maintaining distinct identities, resisting full assimilation into lowland-dominated state structures. There is frequent emphasis on integration of all the ethnic and religious minorities with Kinh people, also known as the Viet, that form nearly 85% of the population.

Vietnam’s rise mirrors the success stories of the Asian Tigers in East Asia in previous decades: South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. These economies experienced rapid industrialization and exceptionally high growth rates from the 1960s to the 1990s, transforming from low-income or developing regions into global economic powerhouses. However, Vietnam’s rapid rise also presents challenges. Pollution, environmental degradation, and the need for sustainable urban planning are looming concerns. How the country navigates these issues will determine whether it can maintain its momentum or face setbacks in the coming years.

As major economies shift toward reshoring or “friendshoring,” Vietnam could face challenges in maintaining its export-driven growth, especially in industries like electronics, textiles, and manufacturing, which rely on foreign investment and global demand. While reduced global trade flows may slow its rapid economic ascent, Vietnam’s strong trade ties and inter-dependencies with ASEAN, the EU, and the U.S. could help mitigate risks. To navigate de-globalization, the country may need to focus on diversifying its economy, strengthening domestic industries, and investing in high-tech and sustainable production to remain competitive in a shifting global landscape, which the country’s elite is already sensitized. The nations in the Global South seeking to attract international tourists and accelerate economic development, some aspects of Vietnam are a blueprint for success.

(The author has over two decades of experience in peace and security issues, including the Southeast Asian region)



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