“‘One person one vote’ may well be ideal but the difference in numbers of political representation in one region will be skewed beyond proportions”
| Photo Credit: The Hindu
Recently, the Chief Ministers of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, N. Chandrababu Naidu and M.K. Stalin, respectively, were quite peeved about the question of the proposed delimitation exercise and the possibility, subsequently, of the loss of parliamentary seats. This is very likely as the two States, along with the other southern States, are ahead of the rest of India in terms of fertility transition — implying a reduced share of the population when compared with the northern region. What is galling to people in general, and not necessarily just the politicians in south India, is that success in “family planning” will surely reduce the number of seats of the less populated States in Parliament.
“The state government [Andhra Pradesh] is thinking of enacting a law that would make only those with more than two children eligible to contest local body elections,” Mr. Naidu had said. Earlier, Andhra Pradesh had passed a piece of legislation barring people with more than two children from contesting local polls. Mr. Naidu said, “We have repealed that law, and we are now considering reversing it…. Government may provide more benefits to families with more children.”
Mr. Stalin’s response was, “Today, as there is a scenario of decreasing Lok Sabha constituencies, it raises the question why should we restrict ourselves to having fewer children? Mr. Stalin added in jest, “Why not aim for 16 children?”
The example of China
The question that arises in the light of the reactions and the responses of the Chief Ministers is: would it be possible to arrest fertility decline and, moreover, reverse it by attempting to increase it? It is evident that the attainment of low fertility in the course of fertility transition is hardly reversible by intervention, but in the natural course of events, there might be a minor reversal as suggested by experience worldwide. Despite this understanding, there are attempts being made in some countries to reverse the fertility trend through incentivisation, but to no effect. China’s one-child policy was one of the desperate measures to realise population control. The consequences confronting the Chinese state on varied fronts include problems in the marriage market, a dependency burden and, above all, extreme low fertility beyond the scope for reversal.
Quick and forced regulatory measures to restrict reproduction have never paid dividends beyond restricting population counts. In fact, an emphasis on limiting population counts without caring for its composition that sustains the population may well be considered unplanned. China’s case is an example wherein the state is facing numerous crises at this point over the familial transitions underway and the consequential burden of social security provisioning on the state.
An imbalanced population composition reached by intruding into the natural course of transition will pose problems that would only be remedied through promoting migration. Efforts at incentivising reproduction and adoption of a pro-natal population policy may not be an alternative as seen in countries such as Japan and South Korea. Hence, the response of the southern States to the emerging threat may well be considered premature and ineffective in the long run.
Varied population counts
The course of fertility decline in India’s States does show signs of a convergence across space and characteristics but a population momentum keeps the demographic divide wider between regions. Given this circumstance, population counts between provinces may not be the appropriate criterion to have political representation that will defy the federal structure of our nation. ‘One person one vote’ may well be ideal but the difference in numbers of political representation in one region will be skewed beyond proportions. Unless these counts are weighed with some characteristics in terms of appropriating political representation, it will be unfair, for example, to a region that ushered in development with population control. This brings in a recognition of demographic divide apparent with education, coupled with the number of children being the criteria for shaping political outcomes.
Impact on women
Encouraging women to have more children may be easier said than done. In the current circumstances, a woman’s personal loss in engaging in reproduction is much greater than imagined given the state’s approach in facilitating the same. When the state celebrates the fertility decline and its dividend has benefited the larger cause, its implication in a woman’s life has been less than expected. Therefore, thinking about fertility reversal needs to be preceded by measures of guaranteeing the state’s social support for the additional children on the one hand and compensation for women’s engagement in reproduction on the other.
Reversing fertility could well be ideal in terms of maintaining a sustainable population but the regional population imbalance can perhaps be addressed through migration in immediate terms. What needs to be answered is the ensuing disadvantage of a lower population count and political representation that can only be resolved provided the count gets an equivalence in valuation in terms of capability characteristics. Therefore, the ultimate solution lies not in reversing fertility but in revising count-based political representation in the delimitation exercise.
S. Irudaya Rajan is Chair at the International Institute of Migration and Development (IIMAD), Kerala. M.A. Kalam is Visiting Professor at the International Institute of Migration and Development (IIMAD), Kerala
Published – January 02, 2025 12:08 am IST
