Persistent instability: On German politics

German politics has been in turmoil ever since Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost his parliamentary majority last month, when the pro-market Free Democratic Party exited his three-way coalition. Mr. Scholz initially tried to cling on to power, heading a minority government, but amid criticism and concerns that delaying an inevitable snap election could further damage the chances of Mr. Scholz’s Social Democrats, the Chancellor called for a vote of confidence on Monday. The outcome was known beforehand — his government collapsed the same day, pushing the country into early elections. The Scholz government, which was formed after the 2021 federal elections in which the Social Democrats won most seats, remained fractious from day one. While the Social Democrats and the Greens supported more public spending, the Free Democrats pushed for austerity. The government lacked coordination and what made the intra-coalition fighting worse was the financial crisis. Germany, once the engine of the European economy, has been in recession for two years. With no consensus within the coalition on how to tackle the financial crisis, the government’s popularity plunged. In November, Mr. Scholz sacked his Finance Minister, Christian Lindner (Free Democrats), sealing the government’s fate. President Frank-Walter Steinmeier will now call for elections, most likely in February 2025, seven months earlier than planned.

When Angela Merkel was in power, her conservative coalition managed to offer political stability, economic growth and a fine balancing between great powers. Even during the Russia-Ukraine tensions over the 2014 Crimean annexation, Ms. Merkel and the French leadership engaged with the Russians, which resulted in the two Minsk agreements. But two months after Mr. Scholz became Chancellor, Russia invaded Ukraine. Germany could do little to prevent the war, but it joined the West in imposing sanctions on Russia, which hit the European economies as well. The Nord Stream pipeline, built to bring Russian gas to Germany, was blown up, allegedly by the Ukrainians. The war worsened the West’s energy crisis, in turn impacting the cost of living crisis. It then snowballed into a larger economic meltdown, triggering political instability. Germany is not the only country battling economic woes and political instability. In neighbouring France, a government collapsed in three months, and President Emmanuel Macron has appointed a new Prime Minister, who also lacks a majority in Parliament. Elsewhere in the continent, far-right parties with neo-Nazi views are resurgent. Mr. Scholz is likely to lead the Social Democrats in the elections but the conservative Christian Democrats are the frontrunners. A trial by fire awaits whoever wins.