No time lost: On Donald Trump and the incoming U.S. administration

Within a week of winning the U.S.’s electoral mandate, including its popular vote, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump seems ready to pick up from where he left off in 2020. He has begun announcing his nominees for key posts including his National Security Adviser, Border and Immigration agency head, Environmental Protection Agency chief, UN Ambassador, and is completing the process for more senior posts. He is also relying more on his family than on Republican Party bosses. His son Don Jr., is leading the vetting process, saying that loyalty is the most important qualification, and he would pick candidates who “don’t think they know better” than his father. Mr. Trump has received calls from Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and the leaders of Australia, China, France, Japan, South Korea and the U.K., among others. Calls with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu were aimed at ensuring that the two major world conflicts are wound down. Here too were shades of Mr. Trump’s unorthodox behaviour from his previous tenure: billionaire associate Elon Musk was a part of the call with Mr. Zelenskyy. Details of another call, allegedly with Russian President Vladimir Putin, were leaked to a leading U.S. daily, but the Kremlin called it “pure fiction”. In what can only be seen as an imitation of Trumpian style, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto released his conversation with Mr. Trump on social media. The call with Mr. Modi appeared to have rekindled the friendship from Trump 1.0, with Mr. Trump’s praise of Mr. Modi and the Indian readout recalling the Houston and Ahmedabad rallies.

While it is clear that Mr. Trump’s unpredictable flourishes and hyperbole remain, New Delhi must be prepared that the substance of his bilateral agenda is unchanged despite the strides in ties since 2020. Mr. Trump’s declarations on trade should be taken seriously — he withdrew India’s GSP status for exports over high tariffs in 2019, and his desire to build American manufacturing will clash with the ‘Make in India’ programme and the 2021 PLI benefits scheme. His new partnership with Elon Musk may mean that India will be expected to consider demands from Tesla and Starlink for special duty waivers and tax holidays, as much as it has for other sectors Mr. Trump favoured in the past, such as the Tellurian MoU for LNG purchases (2019) or real estate projects. While the Trump administration and the Modi government will have more aligned policies on China, the West, South Asia and the Indo-Pacific, they will probably differ over Iran, the UN, immigration and subsidies. New Delhi will need to study Mr. Trump’s nominees, deciding clearly where it is willing to concede to the incoming U.S. administration and where it intends to stand firm.