Fighting high-stakes bypolls

Congress general secretary and candidate for the Wayanad by-elections, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, meets party supporters at Eengapuzha, in Wayanad.
| Photo Credit: ANI

For the first time in its electoral history, Kerala is witnessing simultaneous bypolls next month to a parliamentary constituency (Wayanad) and two Assembly constituencies (Palakkad and Chelakkara). The seats will see three-way contests of the Congress, the CPI(M), and the BJP.

Wayanad has once again grabbed national attention since Congress general secretary, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, is making her electoral debut from this seat. A bypoll in this constituency became necessary after her brother, Rahul Gandhi, who won both Wayanad and Rae Bareli in the Lok Sabha elections, was forced to vacate one of these seats and chose to retain Rae Bareli.

It was the 2019 general elections that first thrust Wayanad into the limelight when Mr. Gandhi chose it as his second seat after Amethi. Though the excitement around Wayanad waned when he contested the seat again in 2024, the hill constituency retains its status as an arena where high-stakes political contests are fought.

However, unlike 2019, Mr. Gandhi had to confront stronger opponents in 2024 including Annie Raja, a national executive member of the CPI, and K. Surendran, the State president of the BJP. Mr. Gandhi’s vote share reduced by 5.25 percentage points from the previous election.

For the upcoming bypoll, the CPI has nominated Sathyan Mokeri, a seasoned politician and former legislator who contested the 2014 Lok Sabha polls in Wayanad and lost. The Left’s decision to nominate Mr. Mokeri, who is the national secretary of the All India Kisan Sabha, indicates its resistance to the perceived glamour of Ms. Vadra. The Left considers her an outsider who is ill-equipped to serve the pressing needs of Wayanad, which include recurring human-wildlife conflicts, a crash in the prices of crops, a dearth of medical facilities, landslides, and lack of proper roads and rail connectivity.

The BJP has nominated Navya Haridas, a two-time councillor of Kozhikode Corporation who is the State general secretary of the Mahila Morcha. Her biggest challenge is to retain the 1.4 lakh votes that Mr. Surendran received in the polls five months ago.

Congress strategists are focused on achieving a massive victory for Ms. Vadra; they aim for a margin exceeding five lakh votes. Their confidence stems from the demographic composition of the constituency. The population of Wayanad comprises 46% Muslims, 41% Hindus, and 13% Christians. This minority-majority matrix strengthens the Congress’s belief that Wayanad could be its bastion.

Meanwhile, riveting electoral battles are unfolding in the Palakkad and Chelakkara Assembly constituencies. These seats were vacated by Shafi Parambil of the Congress and K. Radhakrishnan of the CPI(M) after they won the Vadakara and Alathur Lok Sabha seats, respectively. The Congress has chosen Youth Congress State president Rahul Mamkootathil from Palakkad. In a surprising twist, the CPI(M) has nominated P. Sarin from Palakkad. Mr. Sarin was digital media convener of the Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee and dramatically switched allegiance when the Congress decided to field Mr. Mamkootathil. The BJP has entrusted its fortunes to its State general secretary, C. Krishnakumar, who unsuccessfully contested the Palakkad Lok Sabha seat.

The Congress has fielded Ramya Haridas, former Alathur MP who recently faced a setback in her Lok Sabha re-election bid, from Chelakkara. The CPI(M) has roped in its former legislator, U.R. Pradeep, while the BJP is pinning its hopes on K. Balakrishnan, who previously helmed the Thiruvilwamala Gram Panchayat. In the 2021 polls, Mr. Radhakrishnan had secured a landslide victory with a margin of over 39,000 votes.

Both the Palakkad and Chelakkara Congress candidates face the challenge of being outsiders in their segments. There is also friction in the party due to their candidatures. They hope to overcome these difficulties and focus on capitalising on the anti-incumbency sentiment against the ruling LDF government.

Pinning hopes on their well-oiled machinery, the Left parties are confident that they will weather the anti-incumbency storm. If they win these elections, it could boost their morale, which has been low since the Lok Sabha elections.

For the BJP, the elections are yet another opportunity to win an Assembly constituency in Kerala. As of now, the party occupies only one Lok Sabha seat and no Assembly seat in the State.