By winning a third consecutive term in Haryana, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has demonstrated that its pole position in the Hindi heartland remains intact. Its failure to win an absolute majority in the 2024 general election has not eroded its social base, and in Haryana, it increased its vote share when compared to the previous election. The Congress too saw its vote share and the number of seats increase, but not enough to win power. The simultaneous gains for both parties are indicative of a sharper polarisation, but that does not entirely end the importance of smaller outfits and influential independents as it turns out — they tilted the scale in several constituencies. The outcome mirrors a social reality of Haryana that the BJP cleverly engineered to its benefit and which the Congress overlooked, namely, a broad alignment of non-Jat communities against Jat dominance. Incumbent Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini, who is set for a second term, became the face of the BJP’s mobilisation of Other Backward Classes. The BJP’s strategy of offering political space for marginalised Hindu communities is one that is working well for it. Jats possibly united against the BJP, as the eclipse of the INLD and JJP suggest, but that worked in the BJP’s favour by aiding the counter-mobilisation of disparate groups. The Haryana poll outcome also helps Prime Minister Narendra Modi reinforce his authority over the party.
The Congress failed to inspire confidence among a wider spectrum of society as former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda and his son Deepinder dominated the campaign. Their own Jat community rallied behind the party which possibly caused a counter consolidation of the rest. The Hoodas have so controlled the Congress in Haryana that the party organisation is either non-existent or ineffective. They stalled the central leadership’s efforts to form political alliances. The Congress’s Haryana setback follows the pattern of the Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh elections that it lost in 2023 — regional leaders who refused to accommodate party colleagues and broaden the social base which failed the party. The party is struggling to find a balance between having a robust regional leadership and ensuring that its national outlook is not undermined. Senior leader Rahul Gandhi could not enforce his social justice agenda in the party’s Haryana strategy. Dalit party leaders were humiliated, opening space for others. The BJP has been in power for 10 years and there was notable resentment against it among voters. But that did not translate into a change of guard as the BJP could beat anti-incumbency while the Congress failed to gain from it. A study of the Haryana outcome will be instructive of why the BJP wins so often and the Congress ends up second best.
Published – October 10, 2024 12:20 am IST
