​A setback: on the October general election in Japan   

The results of the October 27 general election in Japan have thrown all calculations within the G-7 country and one of the most powerful economies into disarray. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) dropped from 256 seats to 191 seats in the 465-seat House of Representatives, and its partner Komeito, from 32 to 24, putting the coalition short of a majority. The LDP, in power for much of the past six decades, has been bleeding public support, particularly after Shinzo Abe stepped down in 2020 and was assassinated in 2022. Despite garnering sympathy, his successor Fumio Kishida faced questions over the LDP’s links with the Korean Unification Church and a scandal over fundraising by LDP lawmakers, which forced him out earlier this year. This paved the way for a party election that veteran leader and former Defence Minister Shigeru Ishiba won. The larger reason for the loss is sluggish economic growth amidst an ageing population, which has no easy fix. As Mr. Ishiba, who took charge on October 1, tries to cobble together the numbers ahead of the opening of the Diet (parliament) session next Monday, it is by no means certain that he will succeed: the main opposition left-of-centre Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), which increased its seats from 98 to 148, plans to win over coalition partners and independent lawmakers to form the next government. The process has also weakened the LDP, with factions blaming each other for the loss, for the campaign slush-fund “Uragane” scandal, and Mr. Ishiba’s decision to have a snap poll.

No matter what the outcome of the Diet session is, it is clear that the government will be shaky, affecting Japan’s global imprint at a time when it is much needed. Japan’s moderating influence on the U.S., where the presidential elections could throw up a rocky result, may also be missed. Japan’s regional rivals, Russia, China and North Korea, will be watching for signs of weakness in Japan’s defence posture, given their concerns over Mr. Ishiba’s proposal of an “Asian NATO”. For India, the bilateral relationship with Japan is among the most steadfast pillars of foreign policy. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is to visit Japan next month for the annual summit, but given the political developments, it might have to be postponed. This could put many important negotiations, including the one over the troubled Bullet Train-Shinkansen project on hold. Plans for India-Japan joint projects across the Indo-Pacific and South Asian countries (Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Africa), as a part of the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor, will be delayed further. This would, however, be only a matter of time rather than policy thrust, as like in India, there is bipartisan support in Japan for the importance of ties between the two countries.