None too soon: On the setting of the northeast monsoon

The timely arrival of the northeast monsoon, which benefits many parts of the southern peninsula, especially Tamil Nadu and the coastal and Rayalaseema regions of Andhra Pradesh, has brought relief to the region, given its importance from an agricultural as well as a disaster management perspective. Against its normal arrival date of October 20 (plus or minus seven days), the monsoon set in on October 16. The India Meteorological Department has forecast “above normal” rain with more than 112% of the long period average. Going by the data for 1971-2020, the season’s share in the annual rainfall is 48% for Tamil Nadu and over 30% for Andhra Pradesh. The monsoon also witnesses at least three cyclonic disturbances over the Bay of Bengal. There is also the added factor of cloudbursts, which are more frequent now, according to an Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology study. Consequently, coastal States face urban flooding with residents of Chennai living in dread of it, going by their experiences of the past 10 years.

Keeping this in mind, the Tamil Nadu government is putting in place a real-time flood forecasting system for Chennai to calibrate excess water discharge from the reservoirs in and around the city. In addition, the authorities, as in other southern States, are preparing the official machinery to handle any situation. Over the years, the loss of lives has dropped after effective coordination among the agencies concerned. However, there are still many areas in need of more focused attention. The state of stormwater drains and water courses through cities leaves much to be desired, but State governments alone cannot be held responsible for this. That sections of people still use waterbodies as dumping yards only aggravates the problem, highlighting the near absence of community ownership among urban residents. In the farm sector, the shortage of fertilizers, particularly urea, has been bothering agriculturists. About a month ago, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M.K. Stalin, in a letter to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, flagged the issue. Other States which are dependent on rainfall during the southwest monsoon, had also complained of urea shortage. The Union Ministry of Agriculture is reported to have enhanced urea demand for October — it was 36.65 lakh tonnes a year ago. Looking at the macro picture of the monsoon, the message is that as rainfall is expected to be more intense, the authorities at every level have to be vigilant and act in unison so that any adverse impact is reduced, if not eliminated.