​Mixed signals: On India-U.S. talks

India-U.S. ties appear to be recovering some of their normal cadence, with trade negotiators resuming talks in Delhi and Washington, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio meeting External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar in New York, and a U.S. Congressional delegation visiting India, all within the past week. The U.S. Ambassador-Designate to India, Sergio Gor, has cleared most of the steps in his appointment, and awaits a vote on the U.S. Senate floor before arriving in Delhi. Officials are even outlooking the possibility of a meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. President Donald Trump at the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur, and even the prospect of Mr. Trump travelling for the much-delayed Quad Summit in India. The Rubio-Jaishankar talks have been the mainstay of the relationship since the new administration came to power. Mr. Jaishankar is on his fifth officially-announced visit in nine months, beginning with a visit in December 2024, when he met the Trump transition team, until July 1, when he attended the Quad Foreign Minister’s Meet in Washington, just before U.S. tariffs hit India and bilateral ties. Both men agreed on the importance of sustained talks. The U.S. State Department said issues including “trade, defence, energy, pharmaceuticals and critical minerals” were discussed. Trade talks being led by Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal also appear to be taking a positive turn, with hope that compromises would bring them closer on contentious issues such as market access on agriculture, dairy and GM foods, and smoothen the path of a free trade agreement with the promise of Indian investments and purchase of American military hardware and energy.

However, Mr. Trump’s recent actions and words have belied any sense of relief in the talks being restored. The decision to revoke India’s sanctions waiver for its Chabahar port operations, followed by the Executive Order for a $100,000 visa fee for H-1B professionals were unexpected blows. His speech at the UN General Assembly made it clear that the U.S. could increase pressure on India to end its Russian oil purchases, and will continue to hold to its narrative on mediating the India-Pakistan conflict in May, which is frustrating for the Modi government as it has denied the U.S.’s role. Such moves may be negotiating tactics, to keep India on the back foot in trade negotiations, or an indication that the administration does not prioritise building a predictable and dependable partnership. Bilateral ties are a two-way street, and while New Delhi must be ready to deal patiently with more such bumps and hard knocks, it must also be prepared to walk away if or when that becomes necessary.