India must pivot to high-value, tech-intensive production to achieve $1 trillion merchandise exports target: White Paper  

India’s merchandise exports will reach approximately $727 billion by 2030, covering around 73% of the government’s $1 trillion target and leaving a shortfall of nearly $300 billion according to a White Paper released by consulting firm Forvis Mazars.

The paper has forecasted India’s merchandise exports through 2030 under plausible assumptions: annual world merchandise export growth of 3%, GDP growth of 6.7%, and employment growth of 1%. 

The findings underscore that export growth cannot rely on GDP expansion alone. 

To make India’s merchandise exports more resilient and less sensitive to external demand shocks, a shift toward high-value, technology-intensive manufacturing is essential, supported by targeted policy incentives to deepen integration into advanced global value chains, the paper has recommended. 

“Our analysis shows that India needs to shift gears to reach the $1 trillion export goal by 2030. Faster GDP growth is only one of the drivers — to achieve this milestone, the country must pivot toward high-value, tech-intensive manufacturing and innovation-led productivity gains,” said author of the paper Rohit Chaturvedi, partner, Forvis Mazars.

As per the paper sustained progress will also require appropriate capital formation and development of enabling logistics infrastructure to reduce bottlenecks and improve competitiveness. 

This paper seeks to stimulate informed discussion on these critical levers to bridge the gap and achieve the $1 trillion export target by 2030.

India’s merchandise exports have undergone a marked transformation over the past two decades, shifting from low-value primary commodities to a portfolio increasingly led by higher-value manufacturing and technology-intensive products. 

Between FY18 and FY25, engineering goods, petroleum products, electronic goods, pharmaceuticals, gems and jewellery, and chemicals together accounted for about 70% of merchandise export value. 

Electronics stand out as the fastest-growing segment, expanding fivefold to $38.5 billion and increasing their share from 2% to 9% in this period. 

Engineering goods have remained the largest contributor, driven by capital goods, automotive components, and industrial machinery, while traditional sectors such as textiles have steadily lost share, highlighting the broader pivot toward knowledge- and technology-driven exports.