Nifty ended the day at 23,519.35, down 0.31% (-72.60 points). | Image:
Freepik
Nifty Prediction Tomorrow, April 1: Nifty ended the last trading session, on Friday at 23,519.35, down 0.31% (-72.60 points), indicating a slightly risk-averse mood as the players wait for a breakout to know the direction of the next move.
Despite that, optimism remains among players. Ongoing purchases by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs), along with a growing long-short ratio approaching 40%, indicate that the bigger trend is intact. Bulls are expected to be back in charge in the upcoming sessions, as per market insights.
Consolidation Amid Cautious Sentiment
Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Analyst at SAMCO Securities, commented, “For the fourth consecutive session, Nifty remained directionless, reflecting the ongoing indecision among market participants. Intraday volatility was subdued, with the index moving within the prior session’s range.”
“Despite the lack of clear momentum, critical support levels continued to hold firm, signaling persistent buyer activity at lower levels. However, a meaningful rebound remained elusive, suggesting that while bulls are defending their territory, they are struggling to push the market upward,” he added.
The price structure shows a phase of consolidation, with Nifty having formed a well-defined trading range. Analyst pointed out that the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has become a key support level, supporting a solid foundation for buyers to fall back upon.
“With the index closing near this support and sustained buying interest at these levels, bulls appear to have a safety net. The RSI remains firm above 60 on the daily chart, while the Nifty continues to trade comfortably above its key moving averages, suggesting that dips are being absorbed. This setup hints at ongoing accumulation, even as resistance levels remain challenging,” he said.
Options Market Data Reveals Key Levels
The derivatives data reflected a mild bearish bias, with call writers still in control of put writers. Excessive call writing at the 24,000 strike (83.66 lakh contracts) has solidified it as a key resistance level, while heavy put writing at 23,500 (67.38 lakh contracts) highlights strong support at lower levels.
“The 23,500–23,300 range has turned into an accumulation zone, backed by aggressive put writing, while the 23,700–24,000 region faces strong resistance due to persistent call buildup. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) declined from 0.86 to 0.78, signaling cautious positioning among traders. With Max Pain positioned at 23,500, bulls are absorbing supply pressure, potentially paving the way for further gains,” added Dhameja.
Volatility Signals Stability
India VIX, one of the indicators of market uncertainty, fell by 4.38% to 12.71, which indicates decreasing uncertainty. So long as volatility continues to be within check (below the level of 15), the market can be anticipated to maintain its bull run with few interruptions.
What’s in Store for Nifty?
The index is still held in a narrow trading band, a clear sign of market indecision. With significant put and call writing, a breakout is necessary to establish the direction of the next big move. The zone of demand between 23,400 and 23,350 provides a strong base of support, while the range of 23,700–23,800 still provides major resistance.
“Nifty has been confined within a narrow trading band, reflecting market indecision, and with notable put and call writing activity, a breakout is required to dictate the next directional move. Despite the lack of momentum, sustained FPI buying, a strengthening long-short ratio, and a solid base at the 200-day EMA suggest demand remains firm. RSI holds steady above 60, and Nifty continues to trade above its 10-day EMA, indicating a shallow correction with a potential bullish resurgence,” said Dhameja.
On the positive side, a breakdown of the resistance at 23,800 may initiate a wave of short-covering, driving the index towards the psychological level of 24,000. In the meantime, the 23,350 level remains a key support, and so long as the index remains above this level, a buy-on-dips approach is set to continue working.
“With call writers strengthening their grip at higher levels and put writers defending lower zones, traders should anticipate consolidation with intermittent profit-taking. As long as Nifty sustains above 23,350, a buy-on-dips strategy remains optimal. Meanwhile, a breakout beyond 23,800 could set the stage for the next leg higher, potentially driving the index toward 24,000,” Dhameja concluded.
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