Nifty Prediction Next Week: Will Nifty Break Through Its 23,800 Resistance Or Stay Stuck?

Nifty Prediction Next Week: Indian Bourses closed on a bearish note on the last trading session of the 2024-25 fiscal on Friday. The NSE Nifty closed at 23,519.35, down 72.60 points or 0.31%, showing a weak sentiment in the domestic market.  The Nifty Bank index, which follows the performance of the top 12 listed banks, fell 11 points, or 0.02%, to 51,564.85.

Broader market indices followed suit, with the Nifty Midcap 100 index falling 0.32% and the Nifty Smallcap 100 index down 0.15%.

According to NSE data, 11 of 19 sectoral indicators closed in the red. Nifty IT declined the most, closing 1.76% lower, while the Auto index dropped 1.03%.  The indices for real estate, metals, pharmaceuticals, and public sector banks all fell by 1.42%, 0.73%, 0.65%, and 0.52%.

As the new week approaches, the domestic market is likely to face some downward pressure due to a mix of global and domestic factors. Analysts highlight several key developments that could influence market sentiment in the days to come.

“We are likely to see some decline in the domestic market because global cues are slightly negative,” said Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder, of SS WealthStreet.

Wall Street’s recent performance reflects this sentiment, with the USPC, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, showing a 0.4% month-on-month rise in February, exceeding the consensus of 0.3%.

“On an annualized basis, the index ticked up to 2.8% versus an estimate of around 2.7%,” she added, signalling concerns over inflationary pressures.

Tariffs remain a prominent issue, continuing to dominate headlines. “Tariffs dominated headlines last week, and are likely to do so again next week as the April 2 deadline for reciprocal tariffs approaches, impacting approximately $1.4 billion worth of imports by April end,” the analyst explained.

Compounding this, former President Trump recently announced a 25% tariff on all auto imports, raising concerns among market participants. “This is another factor likely to dampen market sentiments,” Sachdeva noted.

The domestic index is expected to face resistance at critical levels. “In terms of the domestic levels, we see the 23,800 mark as a stiff resistance area, with 23,650 also acting as a near-term resistance level. Unless these are surpassed, significant upside movement seems unlikely,” said the expert.

However, there is some support to cushion potential declines. “The 23,200 mark is expected to act as a good support area for the domestic index,” she added.

RBI Policy Meeting Offers Hope

Amidst the uncertainty, the upcoming RBI policy meeting on April 9 brings a glimmer of optimism. “There is a glimmer of hope with the RBI policy meeting on April 9, which raises expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut. If this happens, it could provide a significant boost to credit and market sentiments,” the expert remarked.

A rate cut could create positive momentum, encouraging buying interest at lower levels. “We could see a good bounce-back from lower levels, with increased buying interest if the rate cut materializes,” she added.

Looking ahead, market participants are advised to closely monitor both domestic and global cues. “Market participants should closely watch out for the domestic as well as the global cues,” the expert advised.

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