​Balancing, not swinging: on India-Russia ties, Indian diplomacy

Although the India-Russia relationship goes back decades, the strategic partnership and practice of annual summits marked 25 years this year, with President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Delhi last week. It was his first visit to India since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which ranged the entire West against Moscow, and particularly Mr. Putin himself, who has an international criminal court (ICC) warrant in his name. He has made it clear in recent days that he does not intend to accept the U.S.’s peace proposal without changes, and has stepped up attacks into Ukraine, which has further heightened tensions with Europe. To have invited Mr. Putin at such a time indicates that the Modi government is sending a message to Moscow and western capitals. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decision to receive Mr. Putin in person, and for the government to accord him a state visit, both actions for the first time in its tenure, send the message that Mr. Putin remains a friend despite western attempts to isolate him. The second is that while Mr. Modi consistently speaks of peace efforts, he will not be goaded into criticising Russia for the war. The third is that as geopolitical factors including stringent sanctions on Russian and Indian oil companies and the U.S.’s tariff surcharge of 25% are pressuring India into giving up these imports, India still seeks other ways of engaging Russia economically. To that end, in describing the takeaways from the Modi-Putin meet, officials have highlighted the labour mobility agreement, an MoU to jointly set up a urea plant in Russia, and the adoption of the economic road map launched during Mr. Modi’s 2024 Moscow visit. The road map includes encouraging more trade, developing connectivity using maritime corridors, and mechanisms to enable a national currency payment system to circumvent sanctions.

However, the two sides did not announce any agreements in strategic areas that the West would be sensitive to — for defence hardware, nuclear power projects and space cooperation. Despite Mr. Putin’s offer of “uninterrupted” oil supplies, India also announced no plans to step up oil imports. This will make the goal of $100 billion in bilateral trade by 2030 more difficult. The omission of strategic issues from the agenda is a sign that the government remains aware of western concerns, taking care not to upset current negotiations with the U.S. and the European Union on trade agreements and high-level visits, even as Mr. Modi referred to ties with Russia as the “Dhruv Tara (lode star”). While balancing ties with two sets of partners inimical to each other, however, New Delhi must be mindful that asserting strategic autonomy will require taking consistent steps with both, rather than pendulum movements from one to another.