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Ajay Bagga Sees Volatility Ahead as Global Cues, Fed Decision and Big Tech Earnings Steer Indian Markets

Indian equities ended lower on Friday, October 24, 2025, as the BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty gave up gains after hovering near record highs in the previous session.

The rally that had gathered momentum on Thursday lost steam amid fading optimism over a potential US-India trade deal, following the government’s reluctance to confirm reports of an imminent agreement.

The Sensex closed 344.52 points lower at 84,211.88, while the Nifty 50 fell 96.25 points to 25,795.15, marking a pause in the market’s recent six-day winning streak.
So how the indian market going to react this week – 

Three market moving events this week:
1. Oct 29th: Fed rate cut and comments
    Oct 30th: ECB stays on pause mode
    Oct 31st: BOJ holds steady despite higher inflation

 2. Oct 29th and 30th: On 
Wednesday and Thursday, five firms that account for about a quarter of the S&P 500 Index — Microsoft Corp., Alphabet Inc., Meta Platforms Inc., Amazon Inc. and Apple Inc. — will report their earnings. Beyond the glimpse into their businesses, ranging from cloud computing and e-commerce to electronic devices and digital advertising, investors will be focused on their outlooks for artificial intelligence development. 
Bubble speak is there on the massive AI capex spend, which is lacking revenue visibility.

3. Oct 31st: 
Trump-Xi meeting, maybe US-China trade agreement or framework or partial detente or postponement of 155% tariffs announcement. 
Global will rule markets.

Indian markets are pointing to a positive open, but post Indian Ministers’ sentiment-dampening comments on the imminence of the US-India trade deal, there are no strong domestic catalyst. IMF has raised India’s growth projection,s and earnings downgrades have probably bottomed out in the quarter gone by.

With expiry looming on Tuesday for two key indices, expect volatility.. Rest short-term forecasts are a fool’s errand.
MF purchases in September point to safety first, large-cap concentration. Maybe that trend continued in October. That could be one explanation for the Nifty rising 1500 points but portfolios not showing a similar resurgence. Fund managers remain in “safety first ” mode, which means small and midcaps are not seeing strong inflows.

Read More – AI Data Centers To Surge 160% Power Demand By 2030: Goldman Sachs



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