Union Minister of State Suresh Gopi is flanked by BJP Kerala president K. Surendran (left) and party leader V. Muraleedharan during a lunch organised by the party in Thiruvananthapuram on June 16, 2024.
| Photo Credit: PTI
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ended its electoral drought in Kerala when actor-politician Suresh Gopi won from Thrissur in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Following the celebrations, the party has realised that the road ahead is full of challenges.
Although the victory of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was confined to only one seat, its vote share increased from 15.64% in 2019 to 19.25% in 2024. The party also established leads in 11 Assembly segments across the State and secured the second position in nine others. The ruling Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) in the State, which won only one seat, had secured 36.29% in 2019; this time, it secured 33.36%. The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), which won the remaining 18 out of 20 seats, also experienced a decline in vote share from 47.48% in 2019 to 45.21% in 2024. In 90 of the 140 Assembly segments, the Congress’s votes decreased by more than 10,000.
The impressive performances of BJP candidates Rajeev Chandrasekhar in Thiruvananthapuram, former State president V. Muraleedharan in Attingal, and State vice-president Shobha Surendran in Alappuzha showed that the party’s influence is growing in areas that were traditionally dominated by Congress and CPI(M).
The factors contributing to the BJP’s increased vote share this time can be understood by examining the different phases of the party’s growth in Kerala. Usually, the BJP’s vote share hovered around 8% in general elections. In 2014, soon after the party came to power at the Centre, it began attracting a segment of the Nair votes. This community was traditionally aligned with the Congress. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP expanded its base by drawing voters from both the Congress and the CPI(M). In the 2024 elections, there was a significant erosion of the CPI(M)’s votebank among the Hindu Ezhava/Thiyya community, which benefited the BJP. The party began to get support from Christians too. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s frequent visits to the State played a crucial role in the BJP’s improved performance this time.
But the BJP faces multiple challenges. The first is the deep-rooted factionalism in the party that even its parent organisation, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), has struggled to address. The RSS unexpectedly recalled pracharak K. Subhash from his role as organisational general secretary late last month. Mr. Subhash was reportedly dissatisfied with the party’s leadership. It is unclear whether the RSS will assign a new pracharak for the post.
To achieve its goal of navigating the politically bipolar landscape dominated by the LDF and UDF in the State, the BJP Central leadership needs to revitalise its State leadership and focus on long-term electoral strategies. Generally, leaders from the two factions of the party contest elections to either the Lok Sabha or the Assembly from constituencies where the BJP’s vote share increased in the previous election. The party is yet to learn from the fruitless practice of rotating leaders among constituencies in each election cycle.
Many within the party believe that it is time to elect a more effective leader for the State unit. The State president, K. Surendran, has been given an extended tenure. There are many leaders in the party who are vying for his post. The two factions of the party are led by former State BJP presidents V. Muraleedharan and P.K. Krishnadas, who both seem determined to secure this position for their affiliates.
The BJP also lacks an intellectual and publicity wing to forcefully counter criticisms that come it way, and shape the political discourse. The absence of writers, historians, thinkers, and social and cultural leaders in the party negatively impacts its identity. Establishing a think tank focused on Kerala-specific policies could help the BJP. This is especially important considering the criticism it has received over the Union Budget. The government offered little to Kerala and did not mention the long-awaited All India Institute of Medical Sciences in the Budget. The arguments of the two Union Ministers of State from Kerala, Mr. Gopi and George Kurian, defending the Budget, were unconvincing.
A strategic selection of candidates for the upcoming bypolls in the Wayanad Lok Sabha constituency and the Palakkad and Chelakkara Assembly segments could perhaps brighten the party’s prospects in the local body elections next year.
