The Samajwadi Party (SP), forged on October 4, 1992, by Mulayam Singh Yadav, arose from the shards of a schism within the Janata Dal. After its peak in 2012, the party faced a steady decline. In the 1993 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, the SP allied with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), audaciously challenging the hegemony of the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). This coalition succeeded and Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav became Chief Minister, marking the rise of backward caste politics in U.P.
In the late 1990s and early 2000s, the SP grew stronger, winning 110 seats in the 1996 Assembly polls. Despite internal conflicts, Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav returned as Chief Minister in 2003 through coalitions. However, in 2007, the SP lost to the BSP under Mayawati. The party rebounded in 2012, winning 224 seats and making Akhilesh Yadav the youngest Chief Minister.
The 2017 Assembly elections were challenging, with the SP winning only 47 seats amid internal strife, most notably the acrimonious spat between Mulayam Singh Yadav and Akhilesh Yadav. The 2019 general elections saw a failed alliance with the BSP. In the 2022 Assembly polls, the SP saw a modest recovery, winning 111 seats under Mr. Akhilesh Yadav’s leadership, focusing on alliances, unemployment, and lawlessness.
Defying predictions
As the 2024 Lok Sabha polls unfolded, the SP and its leader were largely consigned to the political periphery by most commentators. The scepticism only deepened when the SP renewed its alliance with the Congress, a partnership that had floundered spectacularly in the 2017 elections. However, the results defied all prognostications, leaving both the BJP’s and SP’s supporters incredulous.
The SP won 37 of 62 seats it contested, while the Congress secured six of 17 seats. The coalition, including one Trinamool Congress seat in Bhadohi, polled 43.52% of the vote share. The BJP won 33 of 75 seats, with its allies, the Rashtriya Lok Dal and Apna Dal (Soneylal), winning two seats and one seat respectively, together polling 42.67%. The BJP’s vote share declined from 2019, while the vote share of the SP-led alliance increased. Significantly, the BSP, led by Mayawati, the tallest Dalit leader and four-term Chief Minister, failed to secure any seats, mirroring its 2014 performance. More alarmingly for the BSP, its vote share diminished to a single digit.
The resurgence of the SP surprised many pollsters and analysts. In Bundelkhand, a former BSP stronghold where the BJP had gained ground since 2014, the SP performed unexpectedly well. Under Mr. Akhilesh Yadav’s leadership, the party also reclaimed the Yadav belt, winning back Kannauj, Etawah, and Badaun. He notably regained the prestigious Kannauj seat.
A particularly astonishing outcome was the Faizabad result. The BJP’s political strategy in U.P. has been inextricably linked to Ayodhya, yet the party suffered a complete rout in the Ayodhya division. The SP won in Faizabad, Ambedkar Nagar, and Sultanpur, while the Congress clinched Barabanki and Amethi — a seat widely dismissed from the Congress’s tally once Kishori Lal Sharma’s candidacy was announced. Political pundits had predicted an easy victory for the BJP’s Smriti Irani, who ultimately suffered a staggering defeat.
Several prominent BJP figures faced ignominious defeats in the State, including Ajay Mishra Teni from Kheri, Sanjeev Kumar Balyan from Muzaffarnagar, Niranjan Jyoti from Fatehpur, Maneka Gandhi from Sultanpur, and Kaushal Kishore from Mohanlalganj. The electoral margins for top leaders, including the Prime Minister and Defence Minister, diminished.
Furthermore, the BJP’s victory margin over the SP-Congress alliance is narrower than the votes garnered by the BSP in 16 additional constituencies — Akbarpur, Aligarh, Amroha, Bansgaon, Bhadohi, Bijnor, Deoria, Farrukhabad, Fatehpur Sikri, Hardoi, Meerut, Mirzapur, Misrikh, Phulpur, Shahjahanpur and Unnao. In constituencies such as Amroha, the BSP siphoned off a portion of Muslim votes and retained a segment of its traditional support, which inadvertently aided the BJP.
The SP’s resurgence can be attributed to its emphasis on social egalitarianism and its pledge to ‘Save the Constitution’. By transcending the traditional Muslim-Yadav vote bank image, the party made significant inroads among non-Yadav Other Backward Classes (OBCs), a feat that even Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav struggled to achieve without BSP collaboration. Mr. Akhilesh Yadav’s PDA (Pichda, Dalit, and Alpsankhyak) strategy proved efficacious, particularly in attracting Jatavs and Kurmis along with the traditional Muslim-Yadav support. Acknowledging that the Muslim-Yadav demographic comprises roughly one-fourth of the State’s population and recognising the imperative to broaden their coalition to counter the formidable BJP, the SP adeptly recalibrated its electoral strategy for a renaissance in U.P.
A formidable contender
The BJP’s aura of invincibility in U.P. now stands questioned. The SP has demonstrated its prowess, posing a formidable challenge to the BJP’s dominance. If it can sustain this amalgamation of Muslims, Yadavs, and a significant cohort of Dalits and Kurmis along with some other OBCs, it will be a formidable contender in the 2027 elections. This coalition could very well position the SP as a serious contender for victory. While the BJP might hope for a resurgence of the BSP in the State, the SP will aim to consolidate and entrench its position with the newfound PDA combination.
Syed Kamran is a Lucknow-based independent journalist and political commentator.
