Tamil Nadu Assembly elections 2026: DMK sits pretty amid a fragmented political landscape

The political situation in Tamil Nadu today offers a throwback to 1989. At that time, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) was split into two factions — one led by M.G. Ramachandran’s wife, V. N. Janaki, and the other by Jayalalithaa. The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the Congress also chose to test the electoral waters independently in 1989. Adding to the fragmentation was the entry of a new political party, the Tamizhaga Munnetra Munnani, founded by thespian Sivaji Ganesan, a Congressman. This fractured political landscape ultimately benefited the DMK, which returned to power after a gap of 13 years.

Today, Tamil Nadu’s political arena is once again overcrowded. Actor Vijay has launched the Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK); actor Seeman’s Naam Tamilar Katchi has secured sufficient votes to gain recognition from the Election Commission; the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), founded by actor Vijayakant and now led by his wife, Premalatha, remains in the fray; the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is striving to establish a foothold; and the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) stands divided between two factions — one led by Dr. S. Ramadoss and the other by his estranged son and former Union Minister, Anbumani Ramadoss.

Amid this fragmentation, the ruling DMK appears comfortably placed, as its principal rival, the AIADMK, is riddled with factionalism. Former Chief Minister Edappadi K. Palaniswami commands the support of a majority of MLAs and MPs, while another former Chief Minister, O. Panneerselvam, leads a smaller faction with a handful of MLAs. However, Mr. Palaniswami, who enjoys a strong base in the Kongu region of western Tamil Nadu, recently suffered a setback when former Minister K. A. Sengottaiyan, another heavyweight from the region, left his camp to join actor Mr. Vijay’s new party. In the Panneerselvam camp, P. Manoj Pandian, the MLA from Alangulam, has switched allegiance to the DMK.

The BJP is eager to stitch together a strong alliance against the DMK and has roped in the AIADMK led by Mr. Palaniswami. Although Mr. Panneerselvam met Chief Minister M.K. Stalin, triggering speculation that he could join hands with the DMK, the possibility of his aligning with the ruling party is ruled out, as it would be seen as a betrayal of the very anti-DMK sentiment that led to the birth of the AIADMK. Even DMK leaders do not harbour any expectations that he will join their alliance. Despite differences, stemming largely from oversized egos on both sides, Mr. Panneerselvam is likely to align with the AIADMK-BJP combine headed by Mr. Palaniswami.

This renewed fragmentation and the arrival of fresh players in an already crowded political landscape has emboldened a section of the Congress to demand a share in power. Girish Chodankar, the Congress in-charge for Tamil Nadu, made the demand public, but it was promptly rejected by the DMK leadership. Praveen Chakravarty, who heads the Professionals’ Congress and Data Analytics, met Mr. Vijay, though it is unclear whether he had the blessing of the party high command. However, the Tamil Nadu Congress Committee president, Selvaperunthagai, castigated Mr. Chakravarty for the move.

Though Mr. Stalin and Congress leader Rajiv Gandhi shared a rare bond, and the DMK supports Rahul Gandhi’s candidature for prime ministership during the Lok Sabha elections, the DMK is not prepared to entertain the Congress’s ambition for a share in the State government. Senior DMK leaders do not believe their alliance would suffer any setback even if the Congress exits it. “The DMK and Tamil Nadu have borne the brunt of the BJP government at the Centre because we have the Congress in our alliance. But we are steadfast in our commitment to secularism and our support for the Congress. In fact, the BJP may tone down its criticism if we snap ties with the Congress,” one of them said.

The situation remains fluid. The BJP will do everything possible to build a strong alliance against the DMK and its allies in Tamil Nadu. The DMK needs to worry only if Mr. Vijay, who has taken cues from MGR and Jayalalithaa and has described the DMK as an “evil force”, and pointedly targets the DMK in his public meetings, decides to join the BJP-led combine. That, however, remains a distant possibility.