For months, the Oscars race this year has had every contender suffering from some combination of bad luck, bad strategy, or the increasingly unavoidable reality that the Internet never forgets. But then, like a phoenix rising from the ashes of its competitors’ self-immolation, Anora has now suddenly emerged as the de facto frontrunner — not because it has been running the smartest campaign (which it has), but because, miraculously, it’s the last film standing.
Sean Baker’s scrappy, $6 million indie, about a Brooklyn sex worker caught in a whirlwind romance with the son of a Russian oligarch had spent the better part of the season as a respected underdog, beloved by critics but largely ignored by the precursors that usually dictate the Oscars trajectory. The Golden Globes snubbed it entirely, and until last week, it seemed destined for the same fate that befalls most Cannes darlings — endless praise, limited hardware.
Then, in one seismic weekend, Anora pulled off an improbable hat trick, winning Best Picture at the Producers Guild Awards (PGA), Best Director at the Directors Guild Awards (DGA), and Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards. It was a decisive flex of industry muscle, and more importantly, a death blow to its competitors, who spent the week spontaneously combusting.
Drowning in controversy
Each major contender this year seemed to have developed a fatal flaw somewhere along the way: The Brutalist couldn’t get the Screen Actors Guild to care (not to mention its own brief AI scuffle), Conclave suffered from an absent director nomination, Wicked saw its director and writers shut out by the Academy, and A Complete Unknown was still searching for a room full of people who actually loved it. Meanwhile, former frontrunner on the cusp of glory, Emilia Pérez became collateral damage in a controversy so volatile that even its biggest defenders quietly excused themselves from the conversation.
Even Anora wasn’t immune to controversy. Its lead actress, Mikey Madison, raised eyebrows when she casually admitted that she had opted not to use an intimacy coordinator for the film’s numerous explicit sex scenes. But compared to what had befallen its competitors, Anora’s missteps seemed almost quaint.
In a season where every major contender has been wounded by scandal, Anora has benefited from the one thing no awards strategist can plan for: being the least objectionable choice. That’s not to say it doesn’t have passionate supporters (take a quick scroll through the Oscars subreddit for reference), but in a year where voters may be exhausted by controversy, it somehow helps that the biggest knock against it is that its makers don’t believe in intimacy coordinators.
The case for (and against) ‘Anora’
So is Anora our Best Picture winner? The odds say yes.
In the last 22 years, only three films that won the DGA’s top honour failed to win Best Director at the Oscars. In the last 34 years, only nine films that won the PGA Award didn’t go on to win Best Picture. The last time a movie swept the Critics Choice, PGA, and DGA and then lost Best Picture was 1917 in 2020 — but that loss was to Parasite, another Palme d’Or winner released by Neon, the studio currently shepherding Anora to the finish line. If Anora does win Best Picture, it will mark Neon’s second victory in just five years, which will be an impressive feat for a boutique distributor competing against Hollywood giants.
Beyond statistics, Anora has something the other films lack: a compelling narrative. It is the rare Oscar contender that exists at the intersection of indie credibility and mainstream accessibility.
Sean Baker has been making a case for himself as the kind of filmmaker Hollywood needs to reward. He is, after all, a director who still shoots on film, makes movies for under $10 million, and delivers box-office success without relying on intellectual property, CGI, or a superhero cape. At each podium, he’s emphasised the necessity of theatrical releases and independent cinema — an argument that plays well in an era where the industry is still figuring out how to convince people to leave their homes for anything that doesn’t involve explosions or Taylor Swift. He’s also nominated in four categories — Director, Producer, Writer, and Editor — meaning that if he sweeps, he will tie Walt Disney’s record for most Oscars won in a single night.
That being said, Anora is far from a lock. The actors’ branch, the largest voting body in the Academy, may not have fully embraced Mikey Madison’s appeal against the stalwart likes of Demi Moore in The Substance or Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here. Meanwhile, the BAFTAs, which tend to have an outsized influence on the Oscar race, are still ahead, and Conclave, Edward Berger’s papal thriller, could make up some ground there. If Anora wins the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Award for Best Ensemble award later this month, this thing is effectively over. If not, we still have a race.
‘The Brutalist’ and the problem of timing
For much of the season, The Brutalist was seen as one of the few Best Picture favourites. It had all the usual trappings of an Oscar winner: a star-studded ensemble, an ambitious (if polarising) artistic vision, and just enough suffering on screen to convince voters it was “important.” But The Brutalist never quite ignited the passion it needed to win.
A three-and-a-half-hour black-and-white drama about an architect’s decades-long battle with creative oppression was never going to be an easy sell, but its biggest problem may have been timing. It arrived late, releasing in December, which meant it had to fight for attention just as Anora was peaking. Baker’s film, by contrast, had been steadily building goodwill since its Cannes debut in May, quietly accumulating fans and proving its staying power.
Can anything still beat ‘Anora?’
At this point, it’s hard to see where the upset could come from. Emilia Pérez is out. The Brutalist is weakened. Dune: Part Two and The Substance are too genre-heavy for Best Picture. Nickel Boys and I’m Still Here are too small.
That leaves Conclave, Wicked, and A Complete Unknown.
Conclave has a chance, especially if the British contingent of the Academy rallies behind it at the BAFTAs. Wicked is undeniably a commercial juggernaut, but its lack of industry-wide recognition makes it a long shot. A Complete Unknown is… well, still completely unknown.
Meanwhile, Anora keeps gaining momentum. The next stop is the BAFTAs, where it has seven nominations. If it picks up a Best Picture or Director win there, the race is effectively over. Then there’s the Writers Guild Awards (WGA), where it’s nominated for Original Screenplay — another potential boost. And then, of course, the aforementioned SAG Best Ensemble win could put the final nail in the coffin of any last-minute competition.
So, do we have our next Best Picture?
Probably. But this year has been strange enough that nothing feels certain. If Conclave or The Brutalist manages to rally at the BAFTAs, if SAG shocks with a different Ensemble winner, if the Academy just decides to be unpredictable for the sake of it — well, anything is possible.
For now, though, Anora is sitting exactly where it wants to be: at the front of the pack, with history and momentum on its side. The only thing left to do is wait and see if the Academy follows the script or flips the table one last time.
The Oscars stream live on March 3.
Published – February 11, 2025 03:02 pm IST
