Crowd of confusion: On the Maharashtra political scene, polls  

A mix of national and regional issues are in focus as campaigning intensifies for the Maharashtra Assembly election of November 20. Personality clashes and the sectional interests of leaders and outfits are also at play in the State, that has seen considerable political churn since the last Assembly election five years ago. Key political actors are trying to make sense of the new landscape and shape it to their advantage, as was evident at The Hindu’s conclave in Mumbai that brought them all together this week. While the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress are concentrating on national topics, the regional parties, particularly the two factions of the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party, are more focused on regional issues. In a speech on Friday (November 8, 2024), Prime Minister Narendra Modi raised Kashmir, accusing the Congress of echoing Pakistan’s view. He said the Congress, which has the demand for a nationwide caste census as a central piece of its current politics, was creating a caste division. There is competitive welfarism at play between the ruling Mahayuti and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray has alleged that the BJP was undermining the State’s interests in development projects and private investments.

The MVA’s gains in the 2024 general election were largely based on a national narrative such as protecting caste-based reservation and the Constitution. The Assembly election involves contests in 288 seats, and the BJP-led Mahayuti has the advantage of a national narrative and the capacity to organise ground campaigning. Caste dynamics also could play out differently. The MVA is seen as a Maratha-dominated platform, while the BJP has room for accommodating a wider coalition of communities. All parties are invoking Shahu Maharaj, Jyotiba Phule and Babasaheb Ambedkar, iconic figures revered in Maharashtra, but with their individual twists. The BJP’s campaign touches on caste justice by subtly challenging Maratha dominance and loudly proclaiming Hindu unity. The party is fielding Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath as a star campaigner, while its partner Ajit Pawar has declared fealty to secularism as a guiding principle. Appeals to regionalism are a double-edged sword as Maharashtra is home to migrant populations from several States. The changing demography could reshape the politics of Maharashtra in the decades ahead. The polity is fragmented across six major parties in the two opposing coalitions. Additionally, numerous rebel candidates of all parties are in the fray. The ongoing campaign is a reflection of confusion and contradictions; the results may begin to settle the churn.