National Conference leader Omar Abdullah is greeted by supporters in Srinagar.
| Photo Credit: IMRAN NISSAR
The Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) survey shows the complex co-existence of the Jammu region and the Kashmir Valley. While Statehood seems to be the main ground of convergence between the two regions, party choices sharply bring to the fore the divergences. The survey provides important insights to the mood, aspirations, and political attitudes of the people of J&K.
While the reasonably high voter turnout was by itself an important achievement and a triumph of democracy, the expression of voters’ choices was an even more significant triumph. The people of J&K were electing a Legislative Assembly after 10 years. While the National Conference (NC)-Congress alliance secured a majority of seats, there was a clear divide in the voting pattern between the Jammu region and the Kashmir Valley. After the results were declared, NC leader Omar Abdullah said that J&K must be governed such that both the Kashmir Valley and Jammu feel adequately represented.
Statehood in demand
Six important factors largely shaped voter choices in J&K. First, there was a strong sentiment across J&K for the restoration of Statehood. More than six of every 10 respondents strongly endorsed the view that granting Statehood is a way forward to solve the Kashmir issue. In the Kashmir Valley, the support for Statehood was much higher as compared to Jammu. When asked whether Union Territory status or Statehood was better for the future of the people, more than eight of every 10 (81%) favoured Statehood.
On the question of the restoration of Article 370, a little less than two-thirds (64%) supported restoration. Within the Kashmir Valley, where it was a major issue, as many as eight of every 10 (83%) favoured restoration of Article 370. But it may be misleading to believe that this is merely a ‘Valley issue’ because in the Jammu region too, four of every 10 (42%) respondents supported the restoration of Article 370.
These two issues — Statehood and autonomy — will remain key to J&K’s’s relation with the Union government and will also shape the relation between the two regions.
Second, there was a visible trust deficit in both regions towards the political process. This deficit was especially evident when it came to issues about the Kashmir Valley in the Jammu region and vice versa. Other than Mr. Abdullah, no local leader was really a preferred chief ministerial candidate. Moreover, leaders from Jammu evoked very little trust in the Kashmir Valley and those from the Kashmir Valley found little trust among the people of Jammu.
Close to half the respondents (48%) expressed a lot of trust in the Election Commission of India (ECI). When this was disaggregated region-wise, the expression of a ‘lot of trust in the ECI’ fell to four of every 10 in the Kahmir Valley and rose to six of every 10 in the Jammu region. While a majority of the respondents said that the elections were held in a free and fair manner with no rigging, the positive response was much more intense in the Jammu region as compared to the Kashmir Valley. This was also reflected in voter turnouts.
Polarisation
Third, the two regions were polarised over the question of endorsement of the performance of the Central government. This endorsement was much more evident in the Jammu region as compared to the Kashmir Valley. In Jammu, four of every 10 respondents said that the Central government was more successful than its predecessors in resolving the Kashmir issue. In the Kashmir Valley, less than one in every 10 (6%) took a similar stand. More than half the respondents were fully or somewhat satisfied with the work done by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance government at the Centre. This reflected in voter choices as well. Two-thirds of those who were fully satisfied with the Modi-led Central government voted for the BJP. Half of those who were somewhat or fully dissatisfied with the work of the Central government voted for the NC-Congress alliance. The support for the work of the Central government was clearly along party lines.
Fourth, despite a disruption in the routine electoral process barring the Lok Sabha election, voter identification with parties was fairly significant. Across J&K, about half the respondents (49%) mentioned party as the key deciding factor. Four of every 10 mentioned the local candidate as the decisive factor in determining who to vote for. Among those who voted for the two national parties and the traditional State-based parties (the NC and the People’s Democratic Party), the party was clearly the focus of attention. In the case of BJP supporters, it was as high as seven (70%) of every 10 voters. Those who voted for new parties made their decision based on the local candidates. Thus, the party mattered for the supporters of established parties, while candidates mattered for the newer parties.
Fifth, there were clear demographic differences in the voting patterns. In Kashmir, the NC-Congress alliance had marginally higher support among men as compared to women. In Jammu, the BJP had greater support among men as compared to women. The NC-Congress alliance drew equal support among the youth in both the Kashmir and Jammu region (four of every 10 youth). The remaining youth voted for the PDP and the newer parties in the Kashmir Valley, while four of every 10 youth in Jammu voted for the BJP.
Finally, the voters across J&K listed the same set of priorities. Unemployment was seen as the most critical problem, followed by inflation and poverty. In the Kashmir Valley, poverty was mentioned more frequently than inflation, while in Jammu, the reverse was true. Only two of the centrally sponsored schemes saw a large number of beneficiaries. Six of every 10 had benefited from the Ayushman Bharat scheme and the numbers were much higher in Jammu (seven of every 10) as compared to Kashmir (five of every 10). The Ujjwala scheme evoked a similar response in both regions with more than half the respondents saying they had benefited from it.
The voters in J&K saw an opportunity to choose a representative who they believe can handle local problems and articulate regional aspirations. This will be a challenging task for all the elected MLAs, as there are clear differences between the regions on a range of issues. The new government will need to reduce the trust deficit.
Sandeep Shastri is Director-Academics, NITTE Education Trust, and the National Coordinator of the Lokniti Network; Suhas Palshikar taught political science and is chief editor of Studies in Indian Politics; and Sanjay Kumar is Professor and Co-director Lokniti-CSDS
Published – October 11, 2024 01:45 am IST
