A litmus test for the BJP in Haryana

BJP’s candidate Mool Chand Sharma for Ballabhgarh files his nomination papers in Haryana’s Faridabad district on September 6, 2024.
| Photo Credit: PTI

Haryana politics is characterised by shifting alliances, coalitions of castes, and national influences. As Assembly elections are scheduled to take place in the State on October 5, there is a stir in the political landscape.

These polls will be a litmus test for the ruling Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) as the Opposition parties, particularly the Congress, are gearing up to challenge its decade-long dominance in the State. The election appears to be a direct contest between the BJP and the Congress, even as talks on seat-sharing are underway between the Congress and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).

The BJP, which has released its first list of 67 candidates, is facing rebellion on close to a dozen of seats. Even as it tries to placate its rebels, the party’s biggest challenge is the anti-incumbency factor. There is also a sense among many people in the State that the ruling party failed to evolve a political grievance redressal mechanism during its tenure. As a result, voters’ concerns on several issues, such as the sexual harassment charges of the women wrestlers, farmers’ demands, and traders’ problems with the Goods and Services Tax, all went unheard. The party will likely have to combat the political narrative surrounding its “arrogance”, in the run-up to the polls. Despite these issues, the BJP appears confident about regaining power after “effectively fighting against corruption and nepotism”, and “ensuring transparency” in governance.

The Congress, which recently inducted Olympian wrestlers Vinesh Phogat and Bajrang Punia into the party, has declared 41 candidates so far. Last year, the two wrestlers were at the forefront of protests against the former Wrestling Federation of India president and former BJP MP, Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh. The two wrestlers are young and from the Jat or agrarian community, which could benefit the party.

However, the Congress is riddled with factionalism and has been functioning for more than nine years without block and district committees. Therefore, its biggest challenge is to put up a united fight against the BJP.

Meanwhile, the AAP, which has successfully fought fights elections on an anti-corruption plank, ironically appears to be on the defensive on the issue as many of its leaders are facing corruption charges.

There are others in the fray too, including the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD); the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP); and the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), the BJP’s former coalition partner, which is contesting the election with the Aazad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram).

As always, every party is relying on caste equations. Earlier this year, by replacing Manohar Lal with Nayab Singh Saini, an Other Backward Classes (OBC) leader, as Chief Minister, the BJP seemed determined to maintain an electoral hold over the OBCs, who account for about 35% of the State’s population. However, the caste arithmetic does not appear to be working to the BJP’s advantage since the Jats, who constitute about 22% of the State’s population, and the Scheduled Castes (SC), who comprise about 20% (2011 Census), may be leaning towards the Congress.

Political observers believe that the reason for Jat consolidation is the “weakening” of the INLD and the JJP — parties which draw their support largely from the agrarian class. The Jat votes have traditionally been divided among the Congress, the INLD, and the JJP. If the Jat votes of the INLD and JJP are secured by the Congress, the party would be in an advantageous position.

There is another reason why the Jats are moving towards the Congress. After forming the government in 2014, the BJP selected Manohar Lal, a non-Jat, as Chief Minister. In Jat-dominated Haryana, Mr. Manohar Lal became the first non-Jat Chief Minister in 18 years after Bhajan Lal. Since then, the community believes that it has lost political power. This bitterness may have only grown, giving them more reason to rally behind the Congress.

Securing the SC vote is also going to be an uphill task for the BJP. In 2014, the party had won nine of the 17 (SC) Assembly seats in Haryana. This dropped to five in the 2019 Assembly polls. On the other hand, the Congress’s performance in these seats went up from four seats in 2014 to seven seats in 2019. In the recent Lok Sabha elections too, the Congress improved its vote share in SC-reserved seats. These figures only affirm the loss of the BJP’s support among Dalits.